生态与农业气象研究进展

生态环境与农业气象

生态与农业气象研究进展

1. 农业气象灾害研究

（1）北方农业干旱监测预警技术研究本课题为多学科、多部门、国家及地方科研、教学单位相结合的联合攻关课题。按照项目组的统一部署和要求，经过中国气象科学研究院、河南省气象科学研究所、山东农业大学、国家气候中心、国家气象中心等单位科研人员5年共同努力，按计划完成了相关研究任务。课题组对我国北方农业干旱综合指标体系及模式、农业干旱监测预警技术等多方面展开了全面系统的研究，建立了农业干旱数据库以及农业干旱指标体系；运用动力与统计相结合的方法，研制了干旱预测模型；完成了星、空、地同步小麦干旱遥感监测试验，对试验资料展开了系统研究，在此基础上提出了航空遥感资料在农业干旱监测中的应用方案，并建立了遥感监测农业干旱系统，其中EOS/MODIS遥感监测精度达85%，微波监测精度达87.5%；确定了区域气候模式不同物理过程参数化优化方案组合，并进行了区域气候模式的回报确定；分布式水文模式运行已获成功，改进作物模式的干旱识别及预警模块，较以往而言机理及模拟能力均有不同程度提高，区域气候模式与农业干旱模式结合形成农业干旱预警系统，对432旬试报结果表明，农业干旱的定性准确率达83.5%，定量准确率达80.7%。项目实施过程中，培养研究生11名，发表论文43篇，其中EI论文9篇，出版专著1部（约30万字）。此外，依托先进的实验基地，以华北地区冬小麦和夏玉米为试验对象，以盆栽和田间试验相结合的方法研究不同农业干旱条件对作物生理生化指标的影响状况，按期完成了相关的阶段性田间试验，获取了大量第一手试验资料。值得提出及的是，课题组克服了诸多困难，在国内首次实施了飞机航空遥感农业干旱监测，并且将卫星遥感和飞机航空遥感结合，完善了微波农业干旱模型。

（2）北方农业低温冷害监测预警技术研究

模拟的农业干旱指数Simulated agricultural drought index

东北玉米生长模型结合冷害综合指标对1961—2007年冷害的模拟结果Simulated cold damage from the northeast corn growth model integrated indicators of cold damage during 1961—2007

开展了一系列野外试验、人工控制试验和监测、预测技术方法的研究。取得的主要成果有：（1）完成了田间试验及人工控制试验，取得了大量试验数据，并结合历史灾情资料，建立了作物不同阶段积温距平和发育期距平的延迟型冷害指标系统及新疆棉花障碍型冷害指标；（2）利用指标监测方法、生长量监测方法和模拟模型监测方法，建立了低温冷害的综合动态监测体系，综合监测准确率达到85%以上；（3）建立了逐月滚动的低温冷害统计学长期预测模型、作物生长模拟模型与区域气候模式相结合的中长期预测模型、基于成熟期和初霜冻预测的短期预测方法，并建立了长中短期相结合的低温冷害滚动预测体系，预测准确率总体上达到85%以上；研究期间共发布各类服务和咨询材料54期，为相关地区低温冷害的防御提供了技术支撑，取得了较好的服务效果；制定了行业标准1项；发表论文27篇，出版专著1部；培养硕士研究生6人，博士研究生1人。

（3）长江中下游高温热害监测预警技术研究

随着全球气候持续变暖，水稻高温热害的发生频率已经显著加大，已引起科学家的广泛重视。长江中下游地区水稻生长季受到高温热害的严重影响，直接影响到该区乃至全国的粮食安全，基于卫星遥感信息开展作物高温热害监测和评估具有重要意义。本研究重点是光学遥感信息对水稻高温热害的监测研究，取得的进展包括采用光学卫星遥感信息对稻作区域气温的空间分布研究；基于混合像元分解信息的水稻田混合下垫面温度提取信息；开展野外高光谱和热红外观测试验和建立模型，构建卫星-地面遥感耦合的水稻高温热害监测模型等。最后探讨了基于遥感信息开展水稻高温热害监测的前景和下一步方向。

（4）华南寒害监测预警技术研究

“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目“农业重大气象灾害监测预警与调控技术研究”之“华南寒害监测预警技术研究”，于2010年11月6日通过中国气象局科技与气候变化司组织的专家验收。课题研究建立了华南5种果蔬作物寒害的指标体系、监测预警和长期预报技术体系、区域与3个省级监测预警业务平台；研制了基于气候变化背景下的寒害气候风险分析、区划技术方法与模型。解决了5种果蔬作物寒害的指标创建、动态监测、精细预警、长期预报、气候风险量化等关键技术。首次建立了西红柿、辣椒寒害等级指标体系；实现了寒害的实时动态监测、未来1～3天的精细预警、长期预测，绝对误差≤1.0 ℃的监测准确率达87%以上、未来1～3天预警准确率达81%以上，大于等于1个月的等级预报准确率达87%以上；编制了5种果蔬作物寒害气候风险区划图7幅、寒害等级风险地理分布图28幅。

研究成果已在3个省级气象业务中投入试运行并初步形成业务能力。编发省级防寒减灾应用服务材料100期以上。应用服务累计面积达36.7万 hm2以上、受益群众达190万人次以上；累计减少因灾损失达32550万元以上，示范区减损率达15%以上。取得国家计算机软件著作权1项。制定技术标准3项，包括国家标准1项、行业标准2项；其中1项气象行业标准已由中国气象局发布实施。获教材教学成果奖3项。建立省级寒害监测预警业务应用与产品发布中试线4条；建立试验基地、示范基地8个，总面积560 hm2。出版学术著作7部，发表学术论文32篇；培养研究生8人。

2. 气候变化对我国农业生产的影响研究

完成了气候变化对我国农业气候资源、主要农作物气候生产力、种植制度的影响研究，以及气候变化对主要作物布局和粮食产量影响的评估工作。研究分别以1961—1990年为气候基准年代，并利用区域气候模式输出的2011—2050年气候变化资料，统计分析了基准年代和未来每10年的主要农业气候资源及其变化状况，利用“农业生态区划法”计算了主要作物基准年代和未来每10年的农作物气候生产力及其变化状况。制作全国区域分布图和未来变化图387幅。

2010年项目重点开展了气候变化对我国农业种植制度、作物布局和粮食产量（冬小麦、玉米、棉花）的影响研究。气候变化对我国农业种植制度的影响研究结果表明：无论是A2情景还是B2情景下，2011—2050年我国一年两熟带、一年三熟带的种植北界较基准状态下（1961—1990年）向北推移趋势明显。完成气候变化对我国主要农作物棉花、冬小麦、玉米的作物布局的评估工作；通过研究华北冬小麦产量与气象要素的关系，建立了冬小麦气象产量与多元气象要素的回归模型，并对未来A2、B2情景下的冬小麦气象产量进行了预测；建立了各省玉米产量与多元气象要素的统计模型，并对未来A2、B2情景下的玉米产量进行了预测；建立了棉花主产区产量与多元气象要素的统计模型，并对未来A2、B2情景下的棉花产量进行了初步预测。

广西自治区寒害监测预警系统Chilling injury monitoring and warning system of Guangxi Autonomous Region

A2气候变化情景下东北地区玉米产量相对变化率(%)（a-d分别为2010，2020，2030、2040年平均与1961—1990年的比较）Relative changes of corn yield in the Northeast under A2 climate change scenario (%)（a-d, relative changes of corn yield during 2010s, 2020s, 2030s and 2040s respectively, compared with 1961—1990）

3. 生态环境研究

如何客观评估我国西部退耕还林/还草的气候和农业效应，是涉及当地社会经济和生态环境可持续发展的重大问题。国家自然基金面上项目“陕甘宁退耕还林/还草的气候农业生态效应评估研究”进一步利用观测数据分析了当地植被变化与区域气候间的相互影响关系，并利用区域气候与作物/牧草生长耦合模式（RegCM3-WOFOST/LINGRA）探讨了单纯由退耕还林/还草所产生的气候和农业效应。观测研究表明，自2000年退耕还林/还草以来，陕甘宁地区的植被分布发生了显著性的变化；相对于北部非退耕区，中南部典型退耕区的夏季温度随时间的增速趋缓而降水量随时间的增速变快；夏季温度的变化与落叶阔叶林、半沙漠、沙漠面积的变化显著相关。陕甘宁地区退耕过程中（1999—2008年）耦合模式的数值模拟表明，单纯的退耕还林/还草对研究区的最高温度有一定抑制作用，对南部典型退耕区的抑制更为明显，对降水量有微弱提升作用，由此导致冬小麦生育期延长，贮存器官干重等产量要素明显增加。其中的降温与耕地或草地转换为林地相对应。退耕前后（1990—2015年）的长期数值模拟表明，单纯的退耕还林/还草造成研究区平均气温和降水量的变化占气候总变化的比例在3%～7%之间，对其他气候和农业要素的影响则更大，是探讨区域范围内气候变化不可忽略的因素，但目前退耕还林/还草的效应尚不能逆转全球气候变化的大背景。本研究在揭示观测事实、开展区域气候模式与作物/牧草生长模型耦合、量化单纯由退耕还林/还草引起的气候和农业效应等方面具有一定创新。同时，本研究针对气候与植被之间相互作用及其反馈机制的科学问题，在研究的方法论上进行了有益的尝试，既促进了气候和农业学科交叉研究的发展，同时又具有一定社会效益。

4. 小麦旱涝灾害风险预评估技术成果推广应用

国家农业科技成果转化资金项目“小麦旱涝灾害风险预评估技术成果推广应用”，于2011年3月3日通过中国气象局科技与气候变化司组织的专家验收。项目针对小麦旱涝灾害风险逐旬预评估气象业务应用的需求，研发了基于旬尺度的小麦旱涝灾害致灾等级指标、风险预评估模型、分省灾害风险业务化预评估指标等；开发了省级小麦旱涝灾害风险预评估业务服务系统；形成省级业务中试线2条、新产品2项，已制作发布省级小麦干旱、涝渍业务服务产品59期；已达到基于实时气象资料的小麦旱涝风险预评估业务化应用的熟化程度。成果已在河南、安徽省建立评估产品生产应用示范区2个，基于灾害预评估产品及其对策措施建议、配套防控技术服务开展生产应用推广，示范区累计应用推广面积达1.6×105hm2，减少因灾产量损失3.5×107kg、减损增效6373.1万元；培训技术人员308人次；累计向农民群众发放小麦旱涝灾害防控技术材料4万多份，带动当地农民参与实施人数达45.5万人。成果形成了省级农业气象业务新产品与服务能力，填补了省级农业气象灾害风险预评估业务的国内空白；实现了小麦旱涝灾害风险预评估信息的实时业务量化，预评估准确率达82%以上。成果在省级农业气象业务发展、农业防灾减灾决策与防控措施适时实施、农业结构布局优化、农业灾害保险等方面具有重要的应用价值和经济社会生态意义。

Ecological Environment and Agrometeorology

Progress in Ecological and Agricultural Meteorologcial Researches

1. Agricultural meteorological disasters

(1) Progress in research on drought monitoring and warning technology of northern agriculture

The project is a joint research project of multi-disciplinary and multi-sector with the combination of national and local’s research and teaching. In accordance with the unif ed arrangements and requirements of the project team, we completed the research task through the five-year research of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shandong Agricultural University, National Climate Center, National Meteorological Center and other organizations. We launched a comprehensive and systematic research in integrated indicators of agricultural drought in North China and monitoring and early warning technology of agricultural drought, and established agricultural drought database and agricultural drought index systems. We also developed drought forecasting models based on dynamic and statistical methods, and completed star, air and land test of remote sensing monitoring sync wheat drought, and started a systematic research on the experimental data. Thus, we put forward a proposal on the application of airborne remote sensing data to agricultural drought monitoring, and established agricultural drought monitoring system through remote sensing. In particular, the accuracy of EOS / MODIS remote sensing was more than 85%, and the accuracy of microwave monitoring was 87.5%. We determined the parameters optimum portfolio of different physical processes of regional climate model and conducted a return determination of regional climate model. We successfully ran a distributed a hydrological model, and improveddrought recognition and an early warning of crop module so that mechanism and simulation capabilities were correspondingly improved. We combined the regional climate model and an agricultural drought model to form agricultural drought early warning system, tested the 432 mid-test results with the accuracy rate of 83.5% and qualitative and quantitative accuracy rate of 80.7%. We trained 11 masters; published 43 papers including 9 EI papers and 1 monograph about 300 thousand words. In addition, based on an advanced experimental base in North China, we chose winter wheat and summer corn as test subjects, used pot and f eld experiment methods, researched the effects of agricultural drought conditions on physiological and biochemical index of crop, fulfilled the relevant field experiments, and obtained first-hand experimental data. Our group overcame many difficulties in firstly implementing the domestic agricultural drought monitoring through aviation remote sensing and satellite remote sensing and airborne remote sensing combination, improving the microwave agricultural drought model.

(2) Progress in research on low temperature and cold damage monitoring and warning technology of northern agriculture

We have made great achievements in a series of field experiments, manual control experiments, monitoring and forecasting techniques and methods. They mainly include: (1) completing the field experiment and manual control experiment, collecting a lot of experimental data, combining them with historical disaster data, establishing the cold damage indicators based on accumulated anomalies and developmental anomalies at different stages of crops, and establishing the cold damage indicators of cotton in Xinjiang Autonomous Region; (2) establishing comprehensive dynamic monitoring systems of cold damage through the use of monitoring methods for indicators, growth and simulation models. The integrated monitoring accuracy rate was above 85%; (3) establishing monthly rolling statistical models of cold damage for long-term forecasting, medium and long-term forecasting model with a combination of crop growth simulation models and regional climate models, short-term forecasting methods based on maturity and early frost forecasting, and establishing long, short and medium-term rolling forecast systems of cold damage with the accuracy rate of more than 85%, issuing 54 services and consulting material in order to provide technical support for cold damage defense during the study period, obtaining better service results, formulating 1 industrial standard, publishing 27 papers and 1 monograph, training 6 masters and 1 PhD.

(3) Progress in research on monitoring and early warning technology of hightemperature and heat injury in the Yangtze River basin

The occurrence of rice high-temperature and heat (HTD) has increased with global warming. Cultivation of rice is seriously affected by the HTD in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, which directly affects food security in this region and in the whole of China. It is important to monitor and assess crop HTD using satellite remote sensing information. This research helped to make progress in the development of monitoring rice HTD using optical remote sensing information. It included the use of optical remote sensing information to obtain the regional spatial distribution of high temperatures, mixed-surface temperature retrieval for rice fields based on mixed decomposition information, the development of field and thermal infrared testing and modeling, and the satellite/ground-based remote sensing coupled method for monitoring rice HTD. Finally, the prospects for monitoring crop HTD based on remote sensing information were summarized.

(4) Progress in research on monitoring and warning technology of chilling injury in South China

“Research on monitoring and early warning technology of chilling injury in South China (2006BAD04B03) ”—— one of the key projects in the National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan Period “Research on monitoring, early warning and regulation technologies of serious agrometeorological disasters” passed the acceptance check by the experts group which was organized by the Department of Science & Technology and Climate Change in China Meteorological Administration in November 6, 2010. Index systems for assessing chilling injury of five kinds of fruits or vegetables in South China, technical system of monitoring, early warning and long-term forecast and 3 provincial operational systems of monitoring and early warning wereestablished by the project. Techniques and models of climatic risk analysis and regionalization of chilling injury under the background of climate change were developed. Key technologies of index establishment, dynamic monitoring, detailed early warning, long-term forecast, quantif cation of climatic risk for chilling injury of f ve kinds of fruits or vegetables were realized. Rank index systems of chilling injury of tomatoes and peppers were established for the f rst time. Real-time dynamic monitoring of chilling injury, detailed early warning for the next 1-3 days and long-term forecast were realized. The monitoring accuracy with absolute error less than 1.0℃ was above 87%. The early warning accuracy for the next 1-3 days was above 81% and the rank forecast accuracy for more than one month was above 87%. Seven regionalization maps of climatic risk for chilling injury of five kinds of fruits or vegetables and twenty-eight distribution maps of risk ranks of chilling injury were compiled.

The findings of this project were put into test run in three provincial meteorological operational systems. More than one hundred service documents for chilling injury prevention and mitigation at provincial level were compiled. The application service coverage area for cropland added up to more than 366666.7 hm2, more than 1,900,000 people benef ted from the application service. The service increased the prof t by more than 325,500,000 yuan and reduced the loss rate by above 15%. One national computer software copyright was obtained and three technical standards were established, including one national standard and two industrial standards. One meteorological standard was issued and put into practice by China Meteorological Administration. Three teaching achievement awards were obtained by the project team. Four pilot lines of operational application and product release for monitoring and early warning of chilling injury at provincial level were established, and eight testing bases or demonstration bases with an area of 560 hm2were built. The project team published seven academic books and thirty-two academic papers, and cultivated eight graduates.

2. Impacts of climate change on agricultural production

The impacts of climate change on China's agricultural climate resources, climatic potential productivity, cropping system and agricultural production and distribution were detailedly evaluated. Based on the daily data of A2 and B2 climate scenarios (2011-2050) and baseline climate conditions (1961-1990) from the regional climate model PRECIS, the possible changes of agricultural thermal resource over the country every 10-year from 2011 to 2050 were analyzed. Based on the Agro-Ecological Zoning (AEZ) model developed by FAO and IIASA, the possible temporal-spatial changes of future climatic potential productivity of major crops every 10-year from 2011 to 2050 and from 1961 to 1990 were also estimated. Total 387 change distribution maps were compiled.

In the year of 2010, we mainly focused on the effects of climate change on cropping systems, crop distribution and food production (winter wheat, corn, and cotton). The possible trajectories of different cropping systems in China from 2011 to 2050 were also analyzed and assessed. Under the projected future A2 and B2 climate scenarios, compared with the baseline climate condition, the northern boundaries of double cropping area and triple cropping area would both move northward markedly from 2011 to 2050. The distribution trends of winter wheat, corn and cotton under climate change were assessed. The regression model on the relationship between winter wheat yield and multi-meteorological factors was established in North China, and winter wheat meteorological yields under future A2 and B2 scenarios were forecasted. The statistical models on the relationship between corn and multimeteorological factors were established in every province, and corn meteorological yields under future A2 and B2 scenarios were also forecasted in every province. The statistical models on the relationship between cotton and multi-meteorological factors were established in the main cotton producing areas, and cotton meteorological yields under future A2 and B2 scenarios were also predicted in every main cotton producing areas.

3. Study on ecological environment

How to assess the possibility of climatic and agricultural effects of returning farmland to the forest and grassland is a major issue involved in local sustainable development of socio-economic and ecological environment. We further analyzed the relationship between the local vegetation change and its regional climate by using some observations, and discussed the climatic and agricultural effects produced by Alone Returning Farmland to Forest and Grassland (AReFFG) through many numerical simulations by using the coupling model (RegCM3-WOFOST/ LINGRA) in the NSFC project (40675071). Analysis of observational data showed that distribution of major landuse types in ShanGanNing region had produced significant changes since 2000. Increment slowed down in July temperature while accelerated in precipitation with time in Typical region of Ecological Reforestation in Central and Southern study Area (TERCS region). Summer temperature was significantly associated with changes of deciduous broad-leaved forest, semi-desert and desert area. Numerical simulation by using RegCM3WOFOST LINGRA during 1999 to 2008 showed that AReFFG had inhibitory effect on the continuous increase of the maximum temperature in the study area and promoted an effect on the increase of precipitation in TERCS region. These situations led to a noticeable delay in winter wheat maturity and increase of dry weight of storage organ (WSO). Temperature change was mainly corresponding with the conversion of farmland or grassland into forest land. Numerical simulation results by using RegCM3WOFOSTLINGRA during 1990 to 2015 showed that the proportion of average temperature and precipitation changes caused by AReFFG were 3%-7% in the total climate changes, while other climate and agricultural elements accounted for the larger proportion. Climate and agricultural effect of AReFFG could not be neglected in probing regional climate change. However, it still could not reverse the large background of climate change. In our project, there were innovations in revealing the observed facts, coupling regional climate model and crop / pasture growth model and trying to separate the effects of AReFFG as well. We had a useful attempt in study methodology against scientific issues of the interaction and feedback mechanism between vegetation and climate. This research not only promoted the interdisciplinary study of climate and agricultural, but also had social benef ts.

4. Progress in research on promotion and application of technological achievements in predictive assessment of wheat drought and waterlogging risk

The project “Promotion and application of technological achievements in predictive assessment of wheat drought and waterlooging risk (2008GB24160440) ” supported by Commercialization Fund of Agricultural Research Findings, passed the acceptance check by the experts group which was organized by the Department of Science & Technology and Climate Change in China Meteorological Administration in March 3, 2011. Disastrous rank indicators of wheat drought and waterlooging disasters on time scale of ten days, predictive assessment model of risk and operational predictive assessment indicators of disaster risk at the provincial level were developed in the project. Operational service systems of predictive assessment of wheat drought and waterlooging risk at the provincial level were established. Two pilot lines of provincial operational systems and two new products were developed. Fifty-nine provincial service products of wheat drought and waterlogging were issued. Operational application of predictive assessment of wheat drought and waterlooging disasters based on real-time meteorological data was well developed and the technology was applied in Henan and Anhui provinces. Two provincial demonstration zones were established. Based on the predictive assessment products of disaster and the countermeasures, the prevention and control technology service were proposed and implemented for the production application and promotion. The application coverage area of demonstration zones added up to161333.3 hm2and the application service reduced 35,185,000 kilograms yield loss and the prof t increased by 63,731,000 yuan. Three hundred and eight technicians were trained and more than 40,000 technical documents for prevention and control of wheat drought and waterlooging disasters were provided to farmers. More than 455,000 local farmers participated in the prevention and control of wheat drought and waterlooging disasters under the guidance of the findings of this project. The project has developed new products of provincial agrometeorological system and filled the gap in predictive assessment of provincial agrometeorological disaster risk in China. Real-time operation and quantif cation of the predictive assessment of wheat drought and waterlooging risk was realized with an accuracy of above 82%. The findings of this project had great value of application and good economic, social and ecological benefits in the development of the provincial agrometeorological system, decision-making of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, timely implementation of prevention and control measures, optimization of agricultural structure and regional distribution, agricultural disaster insurance and etc.