Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast

Stroeve, Julienne; Holland, Marika M; Meier, Walt; et al.



Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast

Stroeve, Julienne; Holland, Marika M; Meier, Walt; et al.

Abstract:From 1953 to 2006, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the melt season in September has declined sharply. All models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) show declining Arctic ice cover over this period. However, depending on the time window for analysis, none or very

few individual model simulations show trends comparable to observations. If the multi-model ensemble mean time series provides a true representation of forced change by greenhouse gas (GHG) loading, 33%-38% of the observed September trend from 1953-2006 is externally forced, growing to 47%-57% from 1979-2006. Given evidence that as a group, the models underestimate the GHG response, the externally forced component may be larger. While both observed and modeled Antarctic winter trends are small, comparisons for summer are confounded by generally poor model performance.

来源出版物：Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, 34(9): L09501

被引频次：382