顶薪麻烦

Kevin OConnor

SUPERSTARS CAN EARN MORE THAN EVER THANKS TO THE LATEST COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENT. BUT NBA PLAYERS AND OWNERS ARE QUICKLY FINDING OUT THAT THE NEW ARRANGEMENT ISNT ALL THAT IT WAS BILLED TO BE.

因为最新版劳资协议，超级巨星能拿到前所未有的高薪。但NBA球员和老板很快发现，新协议和最初设想的有些不同。

Imagine someone told you one year ago that Blake Griffin would be on the Pistons， Chris Paul would be on the Rockets， Jimmy Butler would be on the Timberwolves， DeMarcus Cousins would be on the Pelicans， Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward would be on the Celtics， and Paul George and Carmelo Anthony would be on the Thunder.

想象一下一年前有人跟你說，布雷克·格里芬在活塞，克里斯·保罗在火箭，吉米·巴特勒在森林狼，德马库斯·考辛斯在鹈鹕，凯里·欧文和戈登·海沃德在凯尔特人，保罗·乔治和卡梅洛·安东尼在雷霆。

Have so many All-NBA-caliber players ever changed teams in a single calendar year？ The transaction log has been on fire since Kevin Durant joined the Warriors in the summer of 2016. But its not just the formation of a superteam in Golden State thats shaken up the league. A new collective bargaining agreement and the cap boom two summers ago have created an abnormally active atmosphere. Some NBA executives dont think the changes are going away， and that they could have major repercussions moving forward.

NBA最佳阵容级别的球员在过去一年里发生这么多变动？自从凯文·杜兰特2016年夏天加入勇士，联盟的变化就没有停止过。但改变联盟格局的，并非只是金州勇士。两年前，全新的劳资协议及薪金空间造就了反常的活跃氛围。一些NBA高管不认为改变已经停止，而这些改变会给未来造成大影响。

There were rumblings in 2014 that LeBron James would push for the removal of the max contract， a position that stars like Durant and Kobe Bryant supported. Its true that the leagues superstars dont make as much as they probably should， but such a drastic shift would have opened the door for a single player to earn more money than every other player on his team combined， like when Michael Jordan made$33.1 million in the 1997-98 season. The NBA instituted the max contract the year after Jordans big payday， and it has remained since.

2014年时有传言称，勒布朗·詹姆斯会推动非常顶薪合同，这个态度得到了杜兰特和科比这些明星的支持。联盟超级巨星没有得到理应得到的回报，这是事实，但上述极端的改动会导致出现一名球员的薪金比全队剩余球员薪金总和还要多的情况，比如1997-98赛季拿到3310万美元的迈克尔·乔丹。乔丹拿到大合同的一年后，NBA设立了顶薪合同，并沿用至今。

Instead of abolishing the max altogether， the players union wound up negotiating other changes， including a new set of possible max contracts. A free agent or designated rookie could now earn up to 25 percent of the cap， designated rookies or veterans could now earn up to 30 percent if they hit certain criteria， and superstar players that hit certain qualifications are eligible for the designated veteran player extension， or the "supermax，" which can be up to 35 percent of the cap but can only be given by the team that drafted the player. The latter two were similar in the previous CBA， while the supermax is a brand-new creation.

与其彻底废除顶薪合同，球员工会选择协商其他变化，包括一系列新的顶薪合同。自由球员或指定新秀的薪金可以占到工资帽的25%；如果达到特定标准，指定新秀和老将的资金可以占到工资帽的30%；达到特定标准的超级巨星可以选择指定老将续约条款，也就是所谓"超级顶薪"。他们可以占据工资帽的35%，但只有选下了这名球员的球队才能开出这种合同。后两者与之前劳资协议的规定类似，而超级顶薪则是全新的创造。

But the new menu of max offerings isnt exactly working as intended. The whole point of these changes， from the owners POV， was to help teams keep star players by giving them greater financial incentive to stay， thus preventing another scenario like Durant going to the Warriors. But totally deserving candidates， like Paul George and Gordon Hayward， didnt meet the qualifications for the supermax； George wouldve wanted out anyway， and Hayward walked even with Utah offering an extra year of financial security. The Kings didnt want to pay Cousins more than $200 million， so they traded him. And Griffin， at "only" 30 percent of the cap， was an injury and financial risk the Clippers werent willing to take.

但新的頂薪条款并没有产生人们预期的效果。站在球队老板的角度，这些改变的目标是通过提供更多的留队经济激励帮助球队留下明星球员，避免出现杜兰特加入勇士的情况。但是，那些完全配得上大合同的候选者，比如保罗·乔治和戈登·海沃德却不符合超级顶薪的条件。乔治无论如何也要离开印第安纳，而爵士即便能提供多一年的经济保障也没能留住海沃德。国王不愿意给考辛斯开出超过2亿美元的薪水，而是选择了交易。而格里芬，尽管“只占空间的30%”，却成了快船不愿冒险的伤病和经济负担。

THIS SUMMER COULD END UP SETTING A NEW PRECEDENT FOR WHAT A PLAYER IS WORTH—THOUGH IT MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY. WE MIGHT BE RIGHT BACK WHERE WE STARTED ONCE ALL THE BAD CONTRACTS ARE OFF THE BOOKS AND TEAMS HAVE NEW CAP SPACE TO BURN. THATS WHEN WELL LEARN WHICH FRANCHISES HAVE LEARNED FROM THEIR MISTAKES， AND WHICH ARE STUCK IN A NEVER-ENDING CYCLE OF BAD DECISIONS.

今年夏天，球员的价值可能出现全新先例——尽管这种现象可能只是暂时的。一旦烂合同到期，球队又有大笔空间可用，我们也许就会回到原点。那时候我们就会知道，哪些球队从错误中吸取了教训，哪些再次陷入糟糕决定的无限循环。

Players can earn way more money than ever before from the team that drafted them. But that doesnt mean owners will want to spend it， nor that players will want to take it. The biggest issue， however， is that signing such deals has made it it tremendously difficult to build a title-contending team around that player.

球员可以从选下自己的球队那里挣到过去从未有过的高薪。但这并不等于球队老板愿意掏钱，也不意味着球员愿意接受。可最大的问题在于，签下这种合同会让围绕这名球员搭建争冠球队变得无比困难。

Griffins situation is the perfect example. Multiple front-office executives told me that though the Griffin blockbuster sent shockwaves through the NBA， Clippers consultant Jerry West was ready to reconfigure the roster back in the summer once he knew Paul was a goner. Steve Ballmer just wasnt ready to pull the plug. But even after the Clippers made several notable hires in the front office， West has the owners ear. As time passed and Griffin got injured again， Ballmer came to agree with West that paying an injury-prone player $171 million over five years， including $39 million when hes 32， wasnt in their best interest.

格里芬的情况就是最好的例子。多名高管告诉我，尽管格里芬的大交易震惊了联盟，但夏天得知保罗一定会离开后，快船顾问杰里·韦斯特就做好了重新调配阵容的准备。只是斯蒂夫·鲍默还没下定决心。即便快船聘请了多名高管，但韦斯特的意见仍然能直达老板。随着时间推移，格里芬再次受伤，鲍默最终同意韦斯特的意见，也就是说，给一个容易受伤的球员五年1.71亿美元，而且在他32岁时要支付3900万美元的年薪，这对球队没有好处。

So they made the smart decision， dealt Griffin， and are in the process of exploring other moves to clear a path for a new direction， such as trading center DeAndre Jordan rather than resigning him. A big-market team took a long view and opted to create asset and financial flexibility， while a mid-market team thought short-term and took an enormous risk. Even Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy noted the dangers of acquiring the injury-prone four-time All-NBA player， but he has to gamble to make the playoffs and put butts in the empty seats at Detroits new downtown arena.

他们做出了聪明的选择呃，交易了格里芬，目前正在探讨确定球队新方向的其他选择，比如交易中锋德安德烈·乔丹，而不是和他续约。一支大市场球队从长远打算，选择创造资产和财政灵活度，中等市场球队从短期考虑，接下了一个巨大的风险。连活塞主教练斯坦·范甘迪都注意到了交易容易受伤的四届全明星球员的风险，但他必须为球队进入季后赛，为了让活塞位于市中心的新球馆坐满观众而做出赌博。

The Wizards may encounter a similar issue with John Wall， who will make $169 million over four years starting in 2019-20， including a whopping $46.9 million when hes 31 years old. Wall， despite his obvious talent， has already missed two extended periods this season because of an injured left knee this season and is a lowefficiency half-court scorer whose success relies heavily on his athleticism.

奇才在約翰·沃尔这里可能面临相似的问题，从2019-20赛季起，他会拿到四年1.69亿美元的合同，31岁时他的合同金额达到惊人的4690万美元。尽管拥有出众的天赋，但本赛季由于左膝受伤，他已经两次长时间休战，而且沃尔是一名低效的半场得分手，他的成功主要依赖个人运动能力。

Even if he never misses a game， Wall could take up so much cap that the Wizards will have little to no flexibility to make other transactions. With the supermax offer on the table early last offseason， Wall remarked that the team was"one piece away，" essentially calling for the team to replace Otto Porter Jr. with Paul George. Easier said than done. Past mistakes， like signing Ian Mahinmi for $64 million， led to a lack of financial flexibility. The Nets signed Porter to a max-contract offer sheet and the Wizards had no other option but to sign it， just as they did when it came to inking Wall to the supermax.

即便一场比赛也不休息，沃尔仍然会占据大量薪金空间，导致奇才没有机会进行其他操作。去年休赛季初，面对摆在桌上的超级顶薪，沃尔提出球队“只差一块拼图”，实际上就是呼吁球队将小奥图·波特换成保罗·乔治。说得容易，做起来难。过去的错误，比如用6400万美元签下伊安·马辛米，导致奇才缺乏操作的灵活性。篮网为波特开出了一份顶薪报价，奇才别无选择，只能匹配，正如他们用超级顶薪签约沃尔一样。

Walls new deal doesnt even kick in until the 2019-20 season. But adding capable role players or another star will be problematic when his contract continues to rise by at least 7 percent each season as the cap continues to level off.

沃尔的新合同直到2019-20赛季才会生效。但是，当工资帽保持同等水平时，沃尔的合同每个赛季要提高7%，因此增加合格的角色球员或其他明星将会成为球队的麻烦。

The lucrative new TV deals the NBA signed created a huge influx in cash， which meant more for player salaries. But the players voted against "smoothing" （i.e.， a steady climb in teams available cap space） in favor of one large spike. As a result， the cap took a historic jump， from $70 million in 2015-16 to $94.1 million in 2016-17. It has since leveled off. The cap this season is $99 million. Next season， its projected to rise to just$101 million.

NBA签下诱人的新转播协议带来了大量资金，这对球员的收入影响更大。但球员投票反对“缓慢提升”（比如工资帽稳步提升），选择了大步跨越式提升。因此，工资帽出现了历史性的飞跃，从2015-16赛季的7000万美元提高到了2016-17赛季的9410万美元。从那之后，工资帽基本维持在同一水准。本赛季的工资帽为9900万美元，下赛季预计只会提高到1.01亿美元。

If Jason Smith and Jodie Meeks exercise their player options for next season， the Wizards will already be on the hook for $124.8 million. That puts them well over the projected cap and almost$2 million into the luxury tax before they fill out the back end of their roster. The tax has become the silent killer in the NBA， and not just for teams still trying to build a winner. It significantly limited the Heats ability to retool at the end of the Big Three era， and its doing the same to the Cavaliers. Maybe someday itll be the undoing of the Warriors. And those teams won titles. If an owner is paying a huge tax bill for a roster that cant escape the second round of the playoffs， theres even more reason to explore other options.

如果杰森·史密斯和約迪·米克斯执行下赛季的球员选项，奇才的薪金总额将达到1.248亿美元。这个数字远高于工资帽，而且在填满阵容前就超过了奢侈税线200万美元。奢侈税已经成为NBA里的沉默杀手，深受其害的不止是那些试图搭建争冠阵容的球队。这严重影响到了“三巨头”时代终结后热火的重建能力，骑士也遇到了类似问题。也许有一天，勇士也会受到影响。未来赢得总冠军的球队也不例外。如果老板正在为一个无法突破季后赛第二轮的阵容支付巨额奢侈税，他就更有理由研究其他选择了。

The growing concern over max deals has created a ripple effect heading into the trade deadline. Execs and agents I spoke to believe it explains the rise in trade chatter involving stars. Teams are more regularly gauging the value of their own centerpieces， and other teams are making more calls knowing theyll listen. Its why were hearing reports about Aaron Gordon and Kemba Walker being available.

对顶薪日益加重的担忧，在临近交易截止日起到了连锁反应。和我交流的高管及经纪人相信，这是涉及球星交易流言增多的原因。球队开始越来越多地评估自身核心球员的价值，其他球队也会更多地咨询，因为他们知道对方愿意倾听。这就是我们听到有关阿隆·戈登和肯巴·沃克被摆上货架消息的原因。

With few teams expected to have cap room， players will have less leverage to demand bigmoney deals. As one exec put it to me： Whereas recent deals looked like massive overpays， contracts this summer will look like bargains. If teams are smart and only the truly special players are given max money， then theres an opportunity to recalibrate what players are worth.

由于只有为数不多的球队拥有薪金空间，球员要求大合同的筹码就会变少。一名高管告诉我：尽管最近的签约看上去溢价过多，但今年夏天会出现性价比高的合同。如果球队足够聪明，只有真正特别的球员能够得到顶薪，那么联盟就有机会重新校正球员的价值。

That could mean a reckoning for the uppermiddle-class contract， like the $17 million annually the Magic are shelling out to both Biyombo and Evan Fournier， because theres simply not a lot of free cap space to spend on them. To sign players of this quality， teams might instead use the non-taxpayer midlevel exception， which is currently worth $8.4 million and will near $10 million in the coming years. Or theyll re-sign such players using Bird rights.

这可能意味着对高中产合同的重新调整，比如魔术送给比永博和埃文·弗尼埃尔的1700万美元，因为球队没有足够空间用在他们身上。想签下这类球员，球队可能会使用中产特例，目前价值840万美元，下一赛季为1000万美元。也许他们会使用伯德权与这些球员续约。

This summer could end up setting a new precedent for what a player is worth—though it may only be temporary. We might be right back where we started once all the bad contracts are off the books and teams have new cap space to burn. Thats when well learn which franchises have learned from their mistakes， and which are stuck in a never-ending cycle of bad decisions.

今年夏天，球員的价值可能出现全新先例——尽管这种现象可能只是暂时的。一旦烂合同到期，球队又有大笔空间可用，我们也许就会回到原点。那时候我们就会知道，哪些球队从错误中吸取了教训，哪些再次陷入糟糕决定的无限循环。