21世纪的建筑与城市规划：在无穷知识时代摸索未来

鲍里斯·沙德-宾索/Boris Schade-Bünsow

黄华青 译/Translated by HUANG Huaqing

那一类能够帮助我们为后代创造生活和工作空间的建筑与城市规划，在未来25年间的剧变可能要超过过去一个半世纪所发生的一切。建成环境的未来面貌将完全超乎想象，也将与我们今天所建造的完全不同。为什么？

160年前，早在1712年就由托马斯·纽科门发明的蒸汽机终于摆脱了初期的瑕疵。工程师詹姆斯·瓦特大大提升了蒸汽机的效率，使它变得越发可靠，可以安装在几乎世界上任何地方，这也使得世界各地间的交通联系因蒸汽铁路而大大提升。蒸汽机的这种机动性用途使它在全球各地那些渴求发展的国家留下了深刻印记，由此开启了工业时代。蒸汽机也成为经济和工业发展的引擎。这个时代的特征是全球性的、对于未来的乐观主义，没人曾考虑到可能带来的负面后果。当时也没人能预见，工业化所有积极或消极的影响，终究是不可逆的。

建筑与城市规划领域也发生了范式转型。千百年来，国家经济皆由农业主导。城市中交易的物品都由乡村生产。因此，城市皆沿贸易路线发展，同时也成为政治和宗教的控制及代理之地。千百年来，这一逻辑塑造着城市景观。至今，欧洲中世纪城市的结构依然清晰可见。

1860年以来，工业化给城市带来大规模的生产。生产需要越来越多的空间，以至于前所未有的巨大工厂和车间开始在城市各地杂乱无章地蔓延。价值创造是由成千上万的工人所供给的，他们离开农村、搬到城市，寻求比在农村作为农民或薪资劳工的辛苦劳作更美好的生活。他们并非只身前往，而是携妻带子，有时甚至是整个家族。他们成为了城市社会的新成员。在很短时间内，由于经济的繁荣，这部分人口构成了城市人口的主体。城市社会的新组成结构是由工人阶层界定的。城市社会再不像几个世纪前那样阶级森严。城市中的工人阶级也是工会形成的最初土壤。

另一方面，工业家是真正的财富引擎，类似于今天硅谷一代的创业家。他们大力支持社会发展，就像今天一样，因其控制着劳动力资源的流入。新建工人居住区临近喧闹而发臭的工厂。这对于生产效率而言是好的，但因为由床到工作台的距离被尽可能地缩短，这对于被迫居住于此的人们而言并不美好。

刚开始，这尚且是个双赢局面。工业家们都富得流油，有些甚至富可敌国。工人也拥有一份稳定的可预计收入，以确保家庭的生计。这不同于过往的农业社会，间接导致城市变得更吸引人。进步并不仅限于生产力与城市的发展。医疗卫生水平大大提升，医药、科学和技术的发展推动平均寿命的持续增长。

然而，这种进步很快就逆转了。城市的无规划增长导致了灾难般的住宅条件。工人家庭的住宅面积只有几m2大小，男人、女人和孩子共同挤在这个狭小空间，有时还要容纳在此借住几晚的临时工。狭窄的居住空间引发糟糕的卫生条件。此外，上下水系统彻底超负荷运转，它的扩建速度远赶不上住宅区的扩张和人口的持续流入。社会热点不断涌现，仿佛动乱可能在任何时候爆发。领导阶层警惕着不到100年前法国大革命留下的记忆。混乱和无政府主义是繁荣经济的毒药，必须不惜任何代价地避免。

对这一困境的解答，便是世界上最著名的城市规划宣言——《雅典宪章》。该宪章于1933年雅典举行的第四届世界现代建筑大会中发布，建立了工作、生活、休憩和交通功能的分离机制。城市被分为居住区和工业区。当地的休闲娱乐区域向公众开放。在对未来的乐观信仰支撑下，功能城市的图景浮现出来。

在此蓝图的基础上，一代代城市规划师和建筑师在欧洲及世界各地设计、建设了街区、城市和区域。工业区与居住区分离，并由现代新型公共交通方式连接，确保城市的有序扩张。工人可以快速抵达生产场所，而无需再住在工业区的近邻、进而忍受那些随之而来的劣势。城市与供应网络及物流基础设施紧密连接。这形成了一个独立的宇宙，并持续增长。

当时的建筑师工作亦基于这一城市模型。多层住宅建筑创造了高密度居住的条件，越来越多的人住在城市扩张带来的前所未有的高密度街区中。城市被划分为街区，住宅建筑树立在街区边缘，内部空间一般留下一块矩形场地，在空间足够的前提下也会建造一些更简单的多层住宅。伊莱沙·格雷夫斯·奥蒂斯在1854年纽约发明的电梯自动防坠保护系统，最先在美国东海岸引发了高层建筑的热潮，继而遍布整个世界。在技术进步的保障下，电梯让4层以上的生活变成可能。人们抓住这些契机，让住宅空间的聚集度进一步提升。

工业化带来的新工作方式所塑造的城市，几乎完全取代了中世纪的城市模型。人们建造了一个焕然一新的世界。此前，只有5%的世界人口居住在城市。而今，这个数字在全球范围内已超过50%。实际上在发达经济体，接近70%的人口都居住在城市。

The type of architecture and urban planning that will help us create space for future generations to live and work in will change more dramatically in the next 25 years than it has in the past one and a half centuries. The future of our constructed environment will look completely different than anything we have ever imagined. And it is going to differ greatly from what we are building today. Why?

160 years ago, the steam engine, which had actually already been invented by Thomas Newcomen in 1712, finally got rid of its teething problems. The engineer James Watt greatly improved its efficiency,and thus it became increasingly reliable and it could be installed practically anywhere in the world and its mobility improved through its use in railways.With this gained mobile usage, the steam engine made a mark in countries all over the globe that were striving for growth, thus heralding the age of industrialisation. The steam engine became the engine of economic and industrial development.The time was marked by worldwide optimism about the future, in which nobody considered possible negative consequences. And no one at the time could see that industrialisation, with all its positive and negative effects, would actually be irreversible.

A paradigm shift began for architecture and urban planning. For centuries, the economy of states was characterised by agriculture. What was traded in the cities was earned in the countryside. That is why cities developed along trade routes and at the same time were places of political and religious control and representation. For centuries, this was what actually shaped cityscapes, still today, the structures of medieval cities in Europe are clearly visible.

From 1860 onwards, industrialization brought large-scale production to cities. This production required more and more space, and ever larger factories and entire industrial plants began to grow in a disorderly fashion all over the city. The creation of value was provided by thousands of workers who,hoping for a better life than what the hard work as farmers and wage earners in the countryside promised, moved to the city. But they did not come alone. Together with their wives and children,sometimes with their whole families, they became a new part of urban society. And in only a short time they became the largest part of it in terms of numbers due to the prospering economy. The new composition of urban society was defined by the working class. Never again was the urban society to be as hierarchical as it had been for centuries before.This proletariat in the city was the first breeding ground for workers' organisations and trade unions.

On the other hand, the industrialists were the actual drivers of fortune, comparable to today's protagonists of the Silicon Valley generation. They were very much in favour of the social development of the time, as - similarly to today - they controlled the influx of their resource: manpower. Residential areas for workers were built in close proximity to the noisy and smelly factories. This was good for the efficiency of production, as the distance from the bed to workbench and assembly line could be kept as short as possible. But it was not so good for the people who were forced to live there.

Initially, this was nevertheless a win-win situation. The industrial entrepreneurs became wealthy, some of them even immeasurably rich. And the workers had a regular, predictable income to ensure the survival of their families. This was not previously the case in a society shaped by agriculture and thus led indirectly to the cities becoming even more attractive. However, progress was not limited to productivity and urban development alone. Health care improved, and developments in medicine, science and technology led to a constant increase in life expectancy.

But very soon this progress was actually reversed. The unplanned growth of cities led to catastrophic housing situations. Workers and their families shared a few square metres, men, women and their children lived in very small spaces together with single day labourers, to whom they rented a free bed for a few nights. The cramped living space situation led to miserable hygienic conditions. In addition, the sewage system and water supply were completely overloaded and their expansion could not keep up with the speed of growth of the residential areas and the constant influx of people. Social and societal hotspots developed in which unrest could flare up at any time. The leading class was warned by the memories of the revolutionary years, which, at the time, went back not even a hundred years. Chaos and anarchy are poison for a prospering economy and had to be avoided at all costs.

The answer to this situation was the best known urban planning manifesto in the world. The Athens Charter, adopted at the IV Congress of the Congrès Internationaux d'Architecture Moderne (CIAM) in Athens in 1933, established the separation of the functions of working, living, resting and moving.The city was divided into residential and industrial areas. Local recreation areas were now accessible to everyone. Based on the belief in the optimistic promises of the future, the image of the functional city emerged.

With this blueprint, generations of urban planners and architects developed neighbourhoods,cities and entire regions in Europe and all over the world. Industrial areas and separate residential districts, which were connected by new, modern forms of public transport, enabled the controlled growth of cities. Now workers could quickly reach the production sites without having to live in their immediate vicinity with the associated disadvantages. The city was connected to a network of supply and transport infrastructures. It took on the form of an independent cosmos, which continued to grow.

The architecture at the time was based on this city model. Multi-storey residential buildings made dense living possible, and more and more people now lived in the ever denser quarters of the growing cities. The city was divided into blocks,where residential houses were built on the edges of the blocks, while the inner areas of the mostly rectangular plots included simpler, often multistorey houses if sufficient space was available.Elisha Graves Otis's invention of the automatic fall protection system for elevators in 1854 in New York first triggered a boom in high-rise buildings in the city on the east coast and then all around the world. Thanks to technical progress, elevators now made living beyond the 4th floor possible. These opportunities were seized and the concentration of living space increased further.

建筑与城市规划的下一次大变革始于1950年左右的欧洲和北美。在经历两次世界大战超乎想象的灾难后，欧洲国家迅速在废墟上展开重建，世界经济也很快复苏。财富的稳步增长以及世界范围内关于“永远再无战争”的协议共识最初点燃了经济的持续繁荣。然而，除了日本，“永远再无战争”的颂词却注定短命。阵营转换，利益变化，冷战揭幕。对一场可能核战争的恐惧，主导着此时的政治与外交。

然而，经济并非这一政治灾难的决定因素。相反，经济的快速增长让很多国家走向繁荣。到1950年代，已有相当一部分人能够实现拥有私人轿车的梦想，这在不久前还难以想象。尽管汽车早在50年前就已发明，但直到很久之后它才走入普通人的家庭。生产方式的改进及塑料等现代材料的运用大大推动了汽车制造技术的发展。同时，汽车价格变得便宜，意味着欧洲和北美家庭能够开始存钱购买私人汽车。汽车成了社会发展的同义词和标志物。拥有一辆汽车，仿佛就实现了人生的某个目标。拥有汽车的人便加入了冉冉上升的中产阶层。他们居于社会中层，也乐于展示这一地位。这在每周六各地郊区住宅区的车道两旁尤为显而易见，在那里，父亲和儿子一起清洗、擦拭、抛光这件珍贵的家庭资产，从而在周日的全家出行中展示和庆祝。汽车此时成了出类拔萃的身份象征。从1950年到新千年，对私人汽车的渴望联系着所有社会阶层和代际。甚至到今天，对个人高速交通工具的渴望依然主导着全球各个种族群体的行为。

这种渴望的满足带来大众的动力化和机动性。数百万辆的汽车就需要数百万公里、各种形式和规模的道路。如今甚至世界上最遥远的角落，皆可通过铺砌良好的道路抵达。土地从未得到如此深度的开发。但是，汽车不能一刻不停地运动，这就带来停车空间的需求，多层停车场如同多层住宅般涌现。城市规划悄无声息地适应了这一切。全世界的城市都变得对汽车友好。如今，它几乎是一个结构化的、现代化的城市最标志性的印象。

同时，跨区域的个人交通工具使人们可以选择居住在远离城市中心的郊区。人们无需再住在紧邻工作地或是公共交通枢纽的地方。所需的一切就是道路连接。这几乎是人人皆备的。那些无规划的、汽车友好城市的建设者们确保了这一点。

除了城市中的居住区外，城市周边的住宅区也迅速发展起来。距离并不相关，交通拥堵也尚不常见，驾驶自己的汽车是件愉悦而充满自豪的事情。这些居住区大多是拥有前花园的一户或两户住宅。这种居住方式所需的土地量是巨大的。

城市规划完全取决于时代的经济和社会发展，这种个人机动性带来的全新契机在根本上第二次颠覆了上个世纪的城市面貌。然而这一次，它或许是可逆的。

那么今天又在发生什么？一方面，我们在未来将拥有一种完全不同的机动性。旅行的格言不再是更快、更远。交通工具可能会变慢、变安静。未来，大部分人不会再使用汽车或飞机出行，而是改用步行或自行车。同时，地方和长距离的公共轨道交通会扮演更重要的角色。私人燃油车会被使用清洁能源的、很可能是多人共享的汽车所取代。与今天不同的是，这些汽车单日使用时间将远超1个小时。如果说一辆车的使用时间翻了4倍，也就是说一天使用时间为4个小时，那么城市在维持相同交通容量的前提下，所需的汽车和停车空间将只是今天的1/4。

这种机动性变化将带来另一种类型的城市，就像60年前汽车友好城市的发展一样。然而，拥有最大化机动性的未来城市将会彻底不同。它会更安静、更清洁、更宜居，这会让城市变成更具吸引力的居住地。同时，它也会引起政客的更多兴趣。

比机动性变化更重要的是工作方式的变革。在“数字化”和它的孪生姐妹“全球化”的作用下，工作不再固定于某个特定地点。工作内容也在发生转变，因为附加价值不再只与产品的生产有关。同时，社会人际互动方式也发生着转变。即便是今天的第一批“数字原生代”，也很难想象未来的交互和沟通方式。不过，这些发展前景中有些因素已基本确定。沟通将变得数字化，长距离的沟通也可能像今天的面对面沟通一样适于传递和表达感受和情绪。工作方式的数字化及全球化的结合将带来新的商务模型。处理加工可在任何地方发生，工作也将变得去中心化、时间自由化。

未来的工作方式与机动性这两者的变化，将会剧烈地、持续地改变此后25年我们的生活。然而，城市的规划将构想无限的生命周期，住宅的使用寿命也将大大延长。过去，工作方式和机动性这两个决定城市规划的因素之一发生变化，都足以让我们的建成环境焕然一新。一开始是工业化改变了城市面貌，大约100年后汽车又彻底重塑了城市。

今天，工作方式和机动性这两个参数在同时发生着高速、本质性的转变。无论我们是否乐见，城市和建筑也将面临根本性变革。但不同于150年前或70年前，今天的建筑师和城市规划师有责任和义务，不要让它自生自灭，而是用创新创造性的理念塑造未来的空间。

The new concept of work brought about by industrialisation thus replaced the medieval city model and almost completely replaced it. An entirely new world of construction was thus developed. At the time, only 5 per cent of the world's population lived in cities. Today, that figure has exceeded 50 per cent worldwide. In fact, in developed economies,close to 70 per cent of the population have actually decided to live in cities.

The next great revolution in architecture and urban planning began in Europe and North America around 1950. After the unimaginable suffering of the two world wars and the immediate reconstruction of the destroyed countries in Europe, the global economy regained its strength.Modest economic wealth and the international social agreement that there should "never again be war" were the initial spark that set off increasing economic prosperity. Unfortunately, with the exception of Japan, the mantra of "never again war"was short-lived. Alliances shifted, interests changed,and the Cold War began. The dystopia of a world after a possible nuclear strike determined politics and diplomacy.

However, the economy was not the determining factor for this political disaster. On the contrary.The rapidly growing economies generated prosperity for many. Large parts of the population were now able to fulfil their dream of owning their own car in the 1950s, which was something that was prettymuch unimaginable before. Although the car had already been invented 50 years earlier, it only became something ordinary people could aspire to own at a much later time in history. Improved production methods and modern materials, such as plastics, greatly improved the technology of car manufacturing. At the same time, cars became cheaper, meaning that families across Europe and North America could now start saving for their own vehicle. The car became a synonym and symbol for social advancement. Whoever owned one, had made it in life. Those who possessed their own car belonged to the up-and-coming middle class. They had found their place in the middle of society and liked to show it. This became particularly evident on Saturdays on the driveways of houses across the country. It was here that fathers and their sons washed, polished and shined the treasured family possession in order to present and celebrate it on Sunday on a family excursion. The car was now the status symbol par excellence. From 1950 until the turn of the millennium, the longing for one's own car connected all social classes and generations.Even today, the longing for individual, rapid transportation determines the actions of entire ethnic groups in countries around the world.

The fulfilment of this longing has led to mass motorization and mass mobilisation. Millions of vehicles require millions of kilometres of roads in all shapes and sizes. Even the furthest corners of the world can today be reached on paved and asphalted roads. Never before has the land been better developed. But a car is never constantly in motion,which is why space for parking became necessary and the multi-storey car park was thus invented analogous to multi-storey living. Urban planning adapted to all of this noiselessly and obediently.The car-friendly city became a reality all over the world. Today it is the most distinctive image of a structured, modern city.

At the same time, area-wide individual transport enabled people to live on the outskirts, far from city centres. Now it was no longer necessary to live in the immediate vicinity of one's workplace or a public transport hub. All that was necessary was a road connection. And that was something everyone had. Those building the unplanned, car-friendly city made sure of that.

In addition to the residential quarters in the city, housing estates were created in the peripheries of cities. Distances were of no interest, traffic jams were still largely unknown, and driving one's own car was a pleasure and self-adulation at the same time.These settlements were dominated by one-family and two-family houses with front gardens. The amount of land required for this type of living was immense.

Urban planning was decisively dependent on the economic, social and societal developments of the time, and the new, changed possibilities of individual mobility fundamentally changed the look of cities for the second time in the last century. But this time, it might actually be reversible.

So what's happening today? On one hand, we will be dealing with a completely different kind of mobility in the future. The maxim of locomotion will no longer be faster and further. Mobility will become slower and quieter. In the future, most people will no longer travel by car or plane, but on foot or by bicycle. At the same time, public local and long-distance rail transport will play a greater role.The privately owned car powered by fossil fuels will be replaced by a vehicle which is set in motion with electrical energy and will most likely be shared by many different people. Unlike today, it will be used for much more than an hour a day. If, however, the time of use were only to quadruple, i.e. a shared car would be used for four hours a day, the number of vehicles and thus the space required in cities would be reduced to a quarter for the same transport capacity.

These changes in mobility will lead to another type of city, as happened 60 years ago with the development of the car-friendly city. However, the city of the future with optimised mobility will be completely different. It will be quieter, cleaner and more worth living in, thus making it an even more desirable place for people to inhabit. And that, in turn, will make it interesting for politicians.

Even more serious than the changes in mobility are the changes in work. Digitalisation,together with its sister globalisation, are leading to a situation where work is no longer bound to a specific location. In addition, the content of work is changing, as the added value is no longer linked solely to the creation of products. At the same time, the social interaction between people is changing. Even the first generation of "digital natives" today can hardly imagine what interaction and communication might look like in the future.But some things about these developments are already pretty-much certain today. Communication will be digital, possible over long distances and suitable for expressing and exchanging feelings and moods in the same way as is possible today in faceto-face communication. The digitalisation of work in combination with globalisation will create new business models. Processes can take place anywhere so that work will become increasingly decentralised and time-independent.

These two changes, the future of work and the future of mobility, will alter our lives considerably and lastingly in the coming 25 years. However,cities are planned for an infinite life cycle and even houses should be used for a far longer period of time. In the past, even a change in the two factors that determine urban planning - work and mobility- was enough to give our constructed environment a new appearance. At first, industrialisation changed the face of the city, and almost 100 years later the car completely redesigned it.

Today, both parametres, work and mobility,are changing simultaneously, quickly and fundamentally. Cities and architecture will change just as fundamentally, whether we like it or not. But unlike 150 or 70 years ago, architects and urban planners today have a duty and an obligation to not leave this process to chance but to create space for the future with innovative and creative ideas.