International Security Situation in 2020:Turbulence, Disorder and Overlapped Risks

Tang Yongsheng

International Security Situation in 2020:Turbulence, Disorder and Overlapped Risks

Tang Yongsheng

Deputy Dean of the College of National Security, PLA National Defense University

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The year 2020 is a year of great significance in the history of mankind. The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has greatly accelerated the historical process of the existential profound changes in the world. As the pandemic continues to spread, global politics face more risks and challenges. Traditional and non-traditional security issues are at the intersection of each other, intensifying turbulence and increasing uncertainty in international security. The U.S. Trump administration strengthened unilateralism and power politics, and pushed for a major power competition policy. The security structures such as international arms control mechanism and others are severely impacted, the competition increases while cooperation decreases in international security. Major powers increase their military input and adjust their military strategies in an effort to upgrade their strategic capabilities to adapt to the rapidly changing world situation. Geo-strategic games-play are not easing up amid the pandemic outbreak. Conflicts in some key regions continue, and regional hotspots are hard to cool down. The United States further strengthens its military posture against Russia and China. The United States and Russia continue to wrestle with each other over their military presence and influence in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Arctic. The military revolution, which is mainly based on carriers of the development of weapons and equipment, the evolution of warfare form and the innovation of military thinking, shows signs of accelerating. International security governance faces new challenges and new opportunities. All countries, major countries in particular, need to strengthen coordination and cooperation, jointly guard against major security risks, actively promote the reshaping of the international security order, and achieve lasting peace and prosperity.

International security mechanisms are compromised

Major countries' security cooperation suffer setbacks

Under the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, many countries have strengthened self-protection, and some countries, influenced by domestic politics, tendencies to become conservative in their foreign policies. Traditional security thinking, such as unilateralism, alliance for confrontation, and zero-sum game, etc., tendencies to retrogress, making it difficult for international coordination to be carried out effectively, and thus impeding international security cooperation. The Trump administration strengthened the "America First" principle and withdrew from relevant international treaties, which has further complicated the existing volatile world security situation and dealt a major setback to the building of international security mechanism. In August 2019, the United States withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), breaking the restrictions on the development of intermediate-range and short-range missiles, and trying to promote the deployment of INF in the Asia-Pacific and European region. The United States has also withdrawn from the Arms Trade Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty and announced a relaxation of standards governing the export of drones. In addition, the only effective arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, the New START Treaty, is set to expire in February 2021. The two countries are currently negotiating on this issue, and the international community is following the developments closely.

Uncertainties in the future development of the world situation have increased, strategic concerns of some countries are enhanced, the influence of domestic conservative force has expanded, and major countries have encountered twists and turns in their relations and even witnessed intensified competition among themselves. The Sino-U.S. relations have been on a downward spiral over the past few years, marked by the designation of China as a major strategic adversary in the 2017 U.S. National Security Strategy Report, and the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the tensions between the two countries. In the face of the pandemic impact, the Trump administration did not strengthened cooperation with China, instead highlighted the positioning of China as its adversary and stepped up strategic repression against China from the perspectives of science and technology, economy, geopolitics and ideology, etc. In May 2020, the U.S. government issued the Strategic Policy toward the People's Republic of China,1formally implementing the all-government competition strategy towards China. In September, the U.S. Department of Defense released a report on China's military and security development in 2020, which overstated China's military build-up and development and cooked up the so-called "threat" from China. The competition between the United States and Russia is dominated by armament and geopolitical game. The United States pays particular attention to strengthening military deployment in Russia's frontier areas, for example the United States and Poland signed a military cooperation agreement in August 2020 to increase the number of American troops stationed in Poland. During the pandemic outbreak, although the United States and Russia maintained active communication on important security issues, the gap between the two countries is so deep that the conditions for the resumption of bilateral relations are not in place.

Faced with development and changes of the international security situation, European countries and the Indo-Pacific countries such as Japan, India and Australia have also made corresponding policy adjustments. Relations between Europe and Russia have relaxed somewhat for a while, and Germany having resisted pressure from the United States insists on dialogue and cooperation with Russia. In 2020, the United States and Europe will continue to wrestle over the "Nord Stream 2" natural gas project. Since August, the United States increases sanctions on companies participating in the project, but the U.S. moves are met with a joint protest from 24 EU member states, criticizing the U.S. administration's sanctions as violating international law; so the Nord Stream 2 project was restarted in December after a year of silence due to American sanctions. On defense, the Trump administration pressed NATO Allies on defense spending and repositioned forces stationed in Europe, reducing the number of U.S. troops in Germany. The divisions within NATO can hardly be bridged, not only due to Turkey wavering between NATO and Russia, but major European countries are also fully aware of the importance of independent European defense. France and Germany take the initiative in promoting the preparation of the establishment of a European army, trying to get freed from the dependence on the United States and NATO. Positive changes have taken place in the relations between East Asian countries. After the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), China, Japan and the ROK have reached more consensus on reaching a higher level free trade agreement among them. At present, although the U.S.-Europe, U.S.-Japan, and U.S.-ROK alliance, etc signaled different degree of separation, but as a result of American hegemony still in firm position, some countries reliance on America is still high in the field of politics, security, economy, there is still a phenomenon for them to have no principled foreign policy, so as to cater to the U.S. side.

The world is undergoing profound changes and the international security situation is more volatile, which will put the international security mechanism to a severe test. On the one hand, security challenges and tensions among major powers are on the rise, which cannot be resolved in the short term at least, and may further worsen the global political environment to a certain extent. On the other hand, despite the dangers, the international security situation on the whole is kept under control. Increasing regional turbulence and global challenges have made the international security situation more severe, which has raised an increasingly urgent need for international security governance. Among them, it has become increasingly important to strengthen communication and coordination among major countries. If major powers relations fail to maintain the necessary stability, the world will become more dangerous and even slide into losing control. At moment, the foundation for maintaining the strategic stability of major countries still exists, and all major countries have the necessary strategic capabilities to maintain the basic stability of major country relations. As long as this framework does not falter, major power relations will eventually return to necessary cooperation. As important supplements to traditional strategic capabilities based on nuclear deterrence, space development and defense, cyber attack and defense, and biological defense are playing an increasingly significant role in maintaining strategic stability. In addition, a new wave of scientific and technological innovation is gathering strength, will provide important impetus for the economic and social development of all countries and enhance national governance capacity accordingly.

In December 2020, the United States released a new version of the National Space Policy, which clarified the national security objectives of space operations, aiming to strengthen the U.S. superiority in the space field. A U.S. Air Force X-37B space plane lifts off atop a Cosmos V rocket from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida on May 17, 2010, for its sixth in-orbit mission. Photo by Xinhua News Agency.

This undoubtedly constitutes an incremental benefit factor and is also a key element for great powers to gain advantages in international competition.

The positive effect of strategic stability is indispensable and of great significance for maintaining international security in a changing world. Nevertheless, maintaining strategic stability in a changing world also faces severe challenges. This is mainly reflected in two aspects: First, strategic misdirection and strategic blind action may occur in major countries, which has manifested to a certain extent during the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the changing international order may see a systemic failure. The policy mistakes or out-of-control geopolitical games of some countries may trigger and amplify the above two dangers. The international community is faced with a new historical task, i.e. to inject new vitality into international security cooperation, and various countries should still undoubtedly continue to strive for a better life and good order in spite of predictable and unpredictable difficulties,.

Competition in military technology heats up

Warfare form is undergoing profound changes

A review of the history of international relations shows that every major innovation and breakthrough in science and technology will greatly expand the scope and space for human practice and enrich the connotation and extension of national security. Under the conditions of the pandemic, major countries have not slowed down the pace of scientific and technological innovation, but have continued to increase investment in key fields such as information, artificial intelligence, biology, space, deep sea, polar regions and promoted the rapid development of key fields and technologies. These efforts will continue to extend human exploration to the virtual domain frontier, intelligent frontier, high, deep, far and micro domain frontier, lead to the development of warfare and strategic thinking, and will inevitably bring about profound changes in the international security situation.

The United States of America insists on innovation driver, focuses on the development of disruptive technology, and in recent years, especially emphasizes the integrated trans-disciplinary and inter-disciplinary innovation, constantly increases investment in research and development and testing, updates and deploys new weapons and equipments, (such as the fifth generation fighter, improved nuclear submarine, new torpedo, unmanned intelligent equipments, etc.), and promotes the latest information technology within the framework of digital modernization program. Relevant countries also advance development to enhance competitiveness, with a particular focus on information technology, space presence, strategic deterrence and counter-deterrence. It is important to note that the COVID-19 outbreak will drive rapid advances in biotechnology, which in turn will lead to profound changes in the global bio-security landscape. The cross- and integrated development of bio-technology with other technologies will undoubtedly increase the risk of the proliferation of biological weapons, and all countries should take precautions in advance.2

Centering on the improvement of strategic deterrence and counter-deterrence capability, major countries continue to increase investment, among which the improvement of hypersonic missile performance has become the focus of competition. The United States, Russia and other countries regard the development of hypersonic weapons as a key means to win military superiority and strategic initiative. In fiscal year 2020 alone, the United States spends $2.6 billion on developing hypersonic weapons. In October 2020, the U.S. military launched a naval version of the Manhattan Project, which seeks to enhance distributed maritime warfare capabilities using technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning. Meanwhile, the United States also constantly readjusts its deployments to strengthen its nuclear capabilities, and is to get rid of the institutional constraints of developing intermediate-range ballistic missiles by withdrawing from the INF Treaty. Also in October 2020, Russia successfully test-fired its Zircon (Tsirkon) hypersonic missile, which currently has a maximum speed of Mach 8 and can be launched from a variety of warships, significantly enhancing its strategic deterrence capability. The damaged strategic mutual trust among major countries has led to an atmosphere of escalating the competition for missile defense capabilities. Both the United States and Russia have increased investment, accelerated the development of missile defense technologies and capabilities, and sought to speed up the networking of missile defense systems through diplomatic and military cooperation.

Major countries have increased their investment in space and the pace of space militarization has accelerated, and the COVID-19 outbreak has not affected relevant space launch activities. In December 2019, NATO declared space to be the fifth war theater, after land, sea, air and cyber, subject to NATO's collective defense clause. In December 2020, the United States released a new version of the National Space Policy, which clarified the national security objectives of space operations, aiming to strengthen the U.S. superiority in space. There are signs that the space military race is heating up, and the pace at which the United States and Russia are developing hypersonic weapons near space is of particular concern. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is widely expected to bring about a new industrial revolution. The United States has taken the lead in promoting the militarization of artificial intelligence, and the military has clearly stated that it will invest more in artificial intelligence, machine learning and other fields so as to gain military advantages. The United States isactively implementing the R&D plan, key projects building, technical standards and norms of artificial intelligence technology, and establishing systems for R&D and production, combat application and personnel training. Other countries also increase their investment in AI. For example, Russia, led by the Ministry of National Defense, is implementing its AI development plan. China has also upgraded AI to a national strategy to promote the development and application of a new generation of AI. In view of the current development level of AI, China and Russia still have gaps with the United States.3

Progress in military science and technology and innovation in strategic thinking will further promote the evolution of war to information-based and intelligence-based warfare. Once the weapons and equipment derived from the new mechanism are successfully developed and put into use, their impact may even exceed that of nuclear weapons, and will inevitably change the generating mode of combat effectiveness accordingly. Currently, intelligent technology is gradually applied militarily, and intelligent weapons have played a prominent role in some regional conflicts, indicating the emergence of a warfare dominated by artificial intelligence. Another noteworthy development in the evolution of warfare is that "hybrid war" may become an important form of war in the future. In recent years, the United States has put more emphasis on the "gray zone" competition with China and Russia and other major powers, highlighting the characteristics of "hybrid war" and "hybrid game", with the emphasis on "integration" and "ambiguity". The so-called "integration" refers to the possibility of using a variety of means from backward to advanced ones, from conventional to unconventional technical methods (including cyber warfare, public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, etc.); or emphasizes the comprehensive use of multi-advantages in political, economic, military, technological, media, intelligence and other fields to exert comprehensive pressure on opponents and achieves a political goal through no-war or small-scale war. By "ambiguity", it means taking full advantage of the uncertainties in the relationship between war and non-war, and relations between adversaries and non-adversaries so as to gain the strategic initiative.

Geo-strategic games and non-stop conflicts shadow huge risks

The growing tense international security situation has increased strategic concerns of some countries, and even made them eager to shift public attention to their own mismanagement of the COVID-19 outbreak to the outside world, deliberately aggravate contradictions and create conflicts. The offensive and defensive positions between the United States and Russia have switched from time to time, the United States has taken bigger steps for its Indo-Pacific strategy, the Middle East and other regions remained in turmoil, and India-Pakistan conflicts have repeatedly recurred, showing signs of intensifying geopolitical rivalry.

Historically, the Middle East has always been a focus of contention among major powers and also a hotspot of concentrated geopolitical contradictions. On the Syrian issue, currently the civil war in Syria has basically ended, but it is faced with the difficult problem of post-war reconstruction, and needs to balance all major forces. The U.S. military has not gained a cheap hand on the battlefield in Syria, withdrawing its main forces, but still maintains a few bases and can continue to exert some influence. Russia, which played a key role in ending the Syrian civil war and has continued to expand its influence in the face of the pandemic outbreak, has become an important counterweight in the Middle East. However, the "power vacuum" left by the U.S. withdrawal from Syria is not only open to Russia. Turkey has also been active, intervening militarily in Syria in attempt to further its own interests, and Syrian opposition forces backed by Turkey still control Idlib province. Meanwhile, Iran, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other countries are also very active in regional security and take frequent military actions to jointly promote the evolution of the geopolitical posture in the Middle East. In addition, with the support of the United States, the establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and countries in the region including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan and Morocco, can be seen as a major breakthrough in Israeli-Arab relations.

The United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian Nuclear Issue, and resumed and increased sanctions against Iran, which have a long-term impact on the geostrategic relations on the Eurasian continent. At the beginning of 2020, Commander Suleimani of the "Quds Force" of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps was assassinated by the United States, which was an important landmark event of the dramatic changes of the situation in Iran and the Middle East, which also fully shows the harsh nature of the geopolitical competition in the Middle East, and the situation in the Middle East once appeared seriously tense. Earlier, even in the face of sanctions from the United States, Iran was able to show sufficient restraint and said it would remain in the framework of the JCPOA and not restart the nuclear process. But following Suleimani's assassination, continuing to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon has undoubtedly become very difficult. In June 2020, Iran's nuclear facilities were attacked by unknown forces, which increased regional tensions. In November, Iran's top nuclear expert, Fakhrizadeh, was shot dead, adding greater uncertainty over the future of the JCPOA. The situation in the Middle East is also evolving in a more complicated direction.

In the hinterland of Eurasia, the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the "Nagorno-Karabakh issue" is another war of typical significance in this region following the Russia-Georgia conflict in 2008 and the Ukraine crisis in 2014. There are casualties of several thousand on both sides, and intelligent weapons such as drones are used. The war between two small countries not only has a deep geopolitical background, but also confirms to some extent the reality that the warfare is changing. In the face of the COVID-19 outbreak, the United States did not relax its military deployment around Russia. Instead, it continued to strengthen military surveillance and containment operations on Russia from three directions of the Arctic, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Black Sea, and kept putting pressure on Russia. In March 2020, NATO accepted Northern Macedonia as a member, and in June granted Ukraine "NATO Enhanced Opportunities Partner" status.

Over the years, China has been developing its relations with its neighbors by increasing its interests and promoting the building of a community of shared interests and a shared future, which helps to stabilize the security situation in the neighboring regions. In 2020, the basic form of geopolitical game-play between China and the United States in the Western Pacific region changed. The United States gradually shifted from supporting and conniving regional countries that have disputes with China to make provocations behind the scenes to putting pressure on China at the front line. The U.S. military's daily combat readiness was affected due to the spread of the pandemic outbreak, but it still persisted in discrediting China and mobilized forces to step up the implementation of the Indo-Pacific strategy, which greatly disturbed the security environment around China. Over the past year, in the name of safeguarding "freedom of navigation", the United States has stepped up its military forces to enter the South China Sea, and enlisted its Allies and partners to join in "patrols". The activities of American military aircraft have also become more frequent, raising the risk of military friction in the South China Sea. Tensions were rising along the India-China border after a backsliding in India's policy towards China. Although Japan is also under pressure from the United States, it announced on June 15, 2020 that it would stop deploying the land-based Aegis anti-missile system, reflecting its more diversified strategic considerations.

The situation on the Korean Peninsula has not experienced major fluctuations, but has not freed from the important and sensitive period. To avoid major reversals in the situation on the Korean Peninsula, the political settlement of the Korean Peninsula issue has become further urgent. The parties concerned need to bear in mind the needs of long-term development and stability and continuously build consensus so as to continue the hard-won momentum of easing tensions and dialogue, prevent the Peninsula from falling back into tension and confrontation, and avoid a serious reversal of the situation. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which lasted eight years and will be formally signed on November 15, 2020, is bound to strengthen the trade relations between China and Japan, between China and the ROK, etc., and will also promote economic and trade prosperity in the region, and contribute to the sound development of Northeast Asia and even the whole East Asia.

The situation across the Taiwan Straits becomes more complex and volatile. It is the overall trend of the Trump administration's China policy to move Taiwan from a "black covert card" of strategic ambiguity to a strategic "clear overt card". However, there is no consensus in the United States on "how clear" and "clear to what extent" it should be. In this context, the Trump administration was intensifying its involvement in the situation across the Taiwan Straits, including the introduction of Taiwan-related laws and increasing arms sales to Taiwan. Presently, the political force in Taiwan that is in favor "Taiwan independence" is in the ascendancy, which reflects the complexity of and the difficulty of solving the Taiwan issue. However, as the situation continues to develop and change, the mainland's strategic control over the situation across the Taiwan Straits is continuously strengthened, and "the conditions for reunification are becoming more and more sufficient".4

Increased risk of uncertainty

calls for more effective international security governance

In a changing world, traditional and non-traditional security issues are complex, intertwined and interchanged, the international security situation is increasingly highlighted by disorder and uncertainty, plus local conflicts heating up alternately, so the international security governance faces new challenges. This also fully indicates that the changing situation has brought about more risks. The biggest crisis lies in the fact that the old international system is falling apart meanwhile the new international system cannot be easily generated, thus in such a transitional period, various contradictions and conflicts emerge one after another. The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly accelerated the change of the international power structure and international system, and the factors, roles and approaches affecting the international process are increasing, making the international security situation increasingly complex.

Instead of cooling down in the pandemic outbreak, some regional hotspot issues are showing signs of intensifying tensions and overlapping risks from time to time, which also reflects the serious disorder in international security governance. The Yemeni civil war, for example, has shown no signs of abating in the face of the pandemic outbreak, even though the United Nations calls for an immediate ceasefire between the parties to the conflict in Yemen to jointly combat the COVID-19 outbreak. Yemen's internal contradictions are intertwined and deep-rooted, civil strife and conflicts continue, and its security situation is deteriorating at an accelerated pace under the impact of the pandemic. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned on November 20, 2020 that Yemen is at risk of its worst famine unseen in decades and called on the international community to take action to prevent a catastrophic famine in the country. In the Middle East as a whole, international terrorism is not eradicated. A full decade after the Arab Spring, the situation in the region has become more chaotic, with extremism waiting for resurgence, civil unrest failing to quell, and massive displacement of refugees. Although Syria has made great achievements in the fight against terrorism, it has not eliminated the political soil for the survival of extremist groups. In Latin America, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia and other countries are caught in the dilemma of intensified political struggles and prominent governance problems. The security situation in the Sahel region of Africa remains grave, with cross-border issues such as human trafficking, illicit arms trade, drugs, smuggling and refugees interwoven and overlapping with the spread of the pandemic, which is worsening the humanitarian crisis.

Even in Western countries, economic and social development still faces bottlenecks, and the inherent defects of the old governance model are increasingly manifested. Under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the American society is further torn apart, with rising racial tensions and extremism. Europe's economy has not only been severely hampered by the pandemic outbreak, and the European integration process also has suffered a serious setback after Britain completed its "Brexit". In 2020, the US fiscal deficit reached an unprecedented level, which not only means the pressure on the depreciation of the U.S. dollar will increase sharply, but also may bring unpredictable risks to the global financial system. International financial risks are high, and the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have issued warnings that the global economy will face a severe downturn, while economic difficulties will inevitably lead to more security challenges. Looking back at the "Munich Security Report 2020" at the beginning of the year 2020, its theme is the "Western shortage", emphasizing the West has become less "Western", the world has become less "Western" too, the current security challenges facing the world is tied to the decline of the West, and "the West we know both internally and externally is full of conflicts and confrontation.5

Factors of instability are on the rise and international security governance is facing many difficulties. One important reason is that the United States constantly reduces its long-standing international responsibilities and the relevant countries are tied up with the internal affairs, which have further exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in international security governance. Faced with the growing new demand for international security governance, all countries, major countries in particular, must strengthen necessary and effective coordination and cooperation, seek solutions to prevent major security risks, actively promote the evolution and reshaping of the international security order, and realize global peace and prosperity. "Lessons from history reveal that the outdated path of power politics and military confrontation is no longer feasible. Particularly, under the constraints of the current realities such as all major countries have strategic capabilities and strategic deterrence, stability can be maintained, and global and transnational issues increase, forces and war can no longer solve the fundamental problems.6Otherwise, there will be no final winner, and the future will be in danger. International relations need to evolve and the world also needs a system that is resilient, flexible and open in order to maintain peace in a more complex and more competitive geopolitical era.

It would be inconceivable to respond to a major crisis as widespread as the COVID-19 outbreak without extensive international cooperation. In the face of global threats, every nation must do its part and not be constrained by the short-sight and narrowness of a few politicians. The international system is undergoing profound changes, and the nature of state-to-state relations is undergoing important changes. The zero-sum game of cooperation or confrontation and winner-takes-all is no longer relevant. The same is true for China-U.S. relations. To enhance strategic mutual trust between China and the United States is a very difficult task, which requires a long process of interaction and sufficient strategic patience. At the present stage, China and the United States can do more from the two aspects of conflict control mechanism and mutual strategic assurance. There is no one-way street for major-country relations. China-US relations will eventually adapt to changes in the world and make a choice in line with the direction of historical development.

The turbulences and frequent conflicts and crises in the international security situation in 2020 have repeatedly warned that the maintenance of international security should not be limited to responding to and preventing conflicts and wars, but should also take the initiative in building the basic support for peace and achieving the overall balance between the supply of security systems and the actual demand. Only by building broader consensus, promoting active and effective security cooperation, and promoting reform and innovation in international security governance can the international community find ways and means to ease tensions and disputes, eliminate wars and conflicts, and strive to achieve sustainable development and sustainable security of universal significance.

(Edited excerpts of the article in Contemporary World, No. 1, 2021)

1.“United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China,” May 26, 2020, https：www. whitehouse.gov/articles/united-states-strategic-approach-to-the-people’s-republic-of-china.

2.Tang Yongsheng, “The International Security under Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Risks Overlapping and Increasing Uncertainties,” East Asian Studies, No.5, 2020, pp.16-22.

3. Ibid.

4. http://huaxia.com/thpl/sdfx/6588599.html.

5. http://securityconference.org/en/.

6. Tang Yongsheng, “The Changing International Situation under Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic,” Beijing Observer, No.7, 2020 pp46-50..