经济问题不在中国，而在企业的贪欲

杰弗里·D. 萨克斯

China is not an enemy. It is a nation trying to raise its living standards through education， international trade， infrastructure investment， and improved technologies. In short， it is doing what any country should do when confronted with the historical reality of being poor and far behind more powerful countries. Yet the Trump administration is now aiming to stop Chinas development， which could prove to be disastrous for both the United States and the entire world.

China is being made a scapegoat for rising inequality in the United States. While US trade relations with China have been mutually beneficial over the years， some US workers have been left behind， notably Midwestern factory workers facing competition due to rising productivity and comparatively low （though rising） labor costs in China. Instead of blaming China for this normal phenomenon of market competition， we should be taxing the soaring corporate profits of our own multinational corporations and using the revenues to help working-class households， rebuild crumbling infrastructure， promote new job skills and invest in cutting-edge science and technology.

We should understand that China is merely trying to make up for lost time after a very long period of geopolitical setbacks and related economic failures. Here is important historical background that is useful to understand Chinas economic development in the past 40 years.

In 1839， Britain attacked China because it refused to allow British traders to continue providing Chinese people with addictive opium. Britain prevailed， and the humiliation of Chinas defeat in the First Opium War， ending in 1842， contributed in part to a mass uprising against the Qing Dynasty called the Taiping Rebellion that ended up causing more than 20 million deaths. A Second Opium War against Britain and France ultimately led to the continued erosion of Chinas power and internal stability.

Toward the end of the 19th century， China lost a war to the newly industrializing Japan， and was subjected to yet more one-sided demands by Europe and the United States for trade. These humiliations led to another rebellion， followed by yet another defeat， at the hands of foreign powers.

Chinas Qing Dynasty fell in 1911， after which China quickly succumbed to warlords， internal strife and Japans invasion of China beginning in 1931. The end of World War II was followed by civil war， the creation of the Peoples Republic of China in 1949.

Chinas rapid development on a market basis therefore started in 1978， when the government launched sweeping economic reforms. While China has seen incredible growth in the past four decades， the legacy of more than a century of poverty， instability， invasion and foreign threats still looms large.

China is now the second-largest economy in the world， when GDP is measured at market prices. Yet it is a country still in the process of catching up from poverty. In 1980， according to IMF data， Chinas GDP per capita was a mere 2.5% of the United States， and by 2018 had reached only 15.3% of the US level. When GDP is measured in purchasing-power-parity terms， by using a common set of “international prices” to value GDP in all countries， Chinas income per capita in 2018 was a bit higher at 28.9% of the United States.

China has roughly followed the same development strategy as Japan， South Korea and Singapore before it. From an economic standpoint， it is not doing anything particularly unusual for a country that is playing catch up. The constant US refrain that China “steals” technologies is highly simplistic.

Countries that are lagging behind upgrade their technologies in many ways， through study， imitation， purchases， mergers， foreign investments， extensive use of off-patent knowledge and， yes， copying. And with any fast-changing technologies， there are always running battles over intellectual property. Thats true even among US companies today—this kind of competition is simply a part of the global economic system. Technology leaders know they shouldnt count on keeping their lead through protection， but through continued innovation.

The United States relentlessly adopted British technologies in the early 19th century. And when any country wants to close a technology gap， it recruits know-how from abroad. The US ballistic missile program， as it is well known， was built with the help of former Nazi rocket scientists recruited to the United States after World War II.

If China were a less populous Asian country， say like South Korea， with a little more than 50 million people， it would simply be hailed by the United States as a great development success story—which it is. But because it is so big， China refutes Americas pretensions to run the world. The United States， after all， is a mere 4.2% of the worlds population， less than a fourth of Chinas. The truth is that neither country is in a position to dominate the world today， as technologies and know-how are spreading more quickly across the globe than ever before.

Trade with China provides the United States with low-cost consumer goods and increasingly high-quality products. It also causes job losses in sectors such as manufacturing that compete directly with China. That is how trade works. To accuse China of unfairness in this is wrong—plenty of American companies have reaped the benefits of manufacturing in China or exporting goods there. And US consumers enjoy higher living standards as a result of Chinas low-cost goods. The US and China should continue to negotiate and develop improved rules for bilateral and multilateral trade instead of stoking a trade war with one-sided threats and over-the-top accusations.

The most basic lesson of trade theory， practice and policy is not to stop trade—which would lead to falling living standards， economic crisis and conflict. Instead， we should share the benefits of economic growth so that the winners who benefit compensate the losers.

Yet under American capitalism， which has long strayed from the cooperative spirit of the New Deal era， todays winners flat-out reject sharing their winnings. As a result of this lack of sharing， American politics are fraught with conflicts over trade. Greed comprehensively dominates Washington policies.

The real battle is not with China but with Americas own giant companies， many of which are raking in fortunes while failing to pay their own workers decent wages. Americas business leaders and the mega-rich push for tax cuts， more monopoly power and offshoring—anything to make a bigger profit—while rejecting any policies to make American society fairer.

Trump is lashing out against China， ostensibly believing that it will once again bow to a Western power. It is willfully trying to crush successful companies like Huawei by changing the rules of international trade abruptly and unilaterally. China has been playing by Western rules for the past 40 years， gradually catching up the way that Americas Asian allies did in the past. Now the United States is trying to pull the rug out from under China by launching a new Cold War.

Unless some greater wisdom prevails， we could spin toward conflict with China， first economically， then geopolitically and militarily， with utter disaster for all. There will be no winners in such a conflict. Yet such is the profound shallowness and corruption of US politics today that we are on such a path.

A trade war with China wont solve our economic problems. Instead we need homegrown solutions： affordable health care， better schools， modernized infrastructure， higher minimum wages and a crackdown on corporate greed. In the process， we would also learn that we have far more to gain through cooperation with China rather than reckless and unfair provocation.

中国不是敌人，而是一个努力通过教育、国际贸易、基础设施投资和技术改进来提高国民生活水平的国家。简而言之，面对贫穷和远远落后于强国的历史现实，中国所做的是任何国家都应做的。然而，现在特朗普政府却企图遏制中国发展，这对美国和全世界来说可能都是个灾难。

中国被当作美国不平等现象日益加剧的替罪羊。尽管多年来中美贸易关系一直是互惠互利的，但一些美国工人却被甩在了后面，尤其是中西部的工人，面临着中国生产力提高和劳动力成本相对较低（尽管不断上升）带来的竞争。美国不应将这种正常的市场竞争现象归咎于中国，而应对自己的跨国企业飞涨的利润征税，再利用这些收入帮助工薪阶层家庭，重建破败的基础设施，提升新的就业技能并投资尖端科技。

美国应该明白，中国遭遇了长期的地缘政治阻隔和与之相关的经济挫折，如今只是在努力弥补损失的时光。以下重要的历史背景有助于了解中国过去40年的经济发展。

1839年，英国入侵中国，因为中国不允许英商继续向中国输入致瘾的鸦片。1842年，第一次鸦片战争结束，英国胜利。中国蒙受战败耻辱，成为引发“太平天国运动”的一个诱因，这场大规模反清起义最终导致超2000万人死亡。抗击英法两国的第二次鸦片战争最终导致中国国力不断被削弱，内部稳定受到侵蚀。

19世纪末，中国在与刚刚走上工业化道路的日本一战中败北，同时也受到欧美更多不平等贸易影响。这些羞辱使中国国内掀起了另一场叛乱，对外则再次败于外国势力之手。

1911年清王朝分崩离析，此后中国很快被军阀掌控，接着军阀混战。1931年日本发动侵华战争。第二次世界大战结束后，内战爆发。1949年中华人民共和国成立。

1978年中国政府实施全面经济改革，中国开始以市场为基础快速发展。虽然中国在过去40年的发展中取得了令人难以置信的成就，但一个多世纪以来，贫困、动荡、外敌入侵和威胁造成的影响依然很大。

当今，以市场价格计算国内生产总值（GDP），中国则是世界第二大经济体，但其仍在努力摆脱贫困。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，1980年，中国人均GDP仅相当于美国的2.5%，到2018年，这个比例也仅是美国的15.3%。以购买力平价作为衡量GDP的标准时，即用一套通用的“国际价格”来衡量所有国家的GDP，则2018年中国的人均收入略有提高，达到了美国的28.9%。

中国大致仿效了之前日本、韩国和新加坡的发展战略。从经济角度来看，对于一个正迎头赶上的国家来说，它的所作所为并没有什么出格之处。美国总说中国“窃取”技术，这种看法过于简单化。

落后的国家通过很多方式来升级自己的技术，包括学习、模仿、购买、合并、外国投资、广泛运用非专利知识，当然，还有借鉴。而且，对于任何高速发展的技术来说，围绕知识产权的争夺总是不可避免，甚至美国公司之间至今也是如此——这种竞争只是全球经济体系的一部分。技术领域的龙头企业都知道，不应指望通过保护措施来保持自己的领先地位，而应依靠持续的创新。

19世纪初，美国一直采用英国的技术。而且，任何国家想要缩小技术差距，都是从海外招募相关专家。众所周知，美国弹道导弹项目就是在前纳粹火箭科学家的帮助下实施的，这些科学家在二战后被美国招募。

如果中国是一个人口较少的亚洲国家，就像韩国那样，只有5000多万人，那么美国就会称赞中国的伟大发展是一个成功的典范——中国确实堪称成功。但中国规模巨大，驳斥了美国治理全球的妄想。毕竟，美国人口仅占世界人口的4.2%，不到中国的四分之一。事实上，由于技术和知识在全球范围内的传播速度远超以往，因此这两个国家都无法主宰当今世界。

中美贸易为美国提供了廉价消费品和日益优质的产品，同时也会导致美国制造业等和中国直接竞争的行业工作机会的减少。这就是贸易的运作方式。在这方面指责中国不公平是错误的——许多美国公司已从在中国制造产品或对华商品出口中获益。由于中国的廉价商品，美国消费者享受了更高的生活水平。美国和中国应该继续谈判，制定完善的双边和多边贸易规则，而不是以一边倒的威胁和过分的指责挑起贸易摩擦。

贸易理论、实践和政策的最基本原则是不要停止贸易，否则将导致生活水平下降、经济危机和冲突。相反，人们应共享经济增长的好处，让受益者补偿受损者。

然而，在长期背离新政（指罗斯福新政）时代合作精神的美国资本主义制度影响下，今天的赢家断然拒绝分享他们的收益。由于缺乏共享，美国政治充满了围绕贸易的冲突。贪婪全面主导了国家政策。

美国真正的敌人不是中国，而是自己本国的大公司。其中很多大公司没有给员工支付体面的工资，反而在攫取财富。美国的商界领袖和超级富豪们都在催促减税、扩大垄断、增加离岸外包等任何能获取更大利润的事，同时拒绝任何使美国社会更加公平的政策。

特朗普正在猛烈抨击中国，从表面上看，他认为中国会再次向一个西方大国低头。美国通过突然单边地改变国际贸易规则，蓄意打压华为这样的成功企业。过去40年，中国一直按照西方的规则行事，逐渐像美国的亚洲盟友一样赶了上来。现在，美国试图通过发动一场新的冷战，突然给中国制造麻烦。

除非有更明智的政策，否则美国可能会陷入与中国的冲突，首先在经济上，然后在地缘政治和军事上，最终给所有人带来彻底的灾難。这样的冲突不会有赢家。然而，当下美国政治的极端浅薄和腐败使美国走上了这样一条道路。

与中国产生贸易摩擦解决不了美国的经济问题。相反，美国需要寻求国内解决方案：减轻医疗保健费用、改善办学条件、现代化改建基础设施、提高最低工资，并遏制企业的贪念。在此过程中，美国还将认识到，相较于鲁莽和不公平的挑衅，与中国合作能使我们获益更多。

（译者单位：华北水利水电大学）