Adjustment of the World Landscape Is Accelerated：Review of the International Military Struggle and Security Situation in 2020

Adjustment of the World Landscape Is Accelerated：Review of the International Military Struggle and Security Situation in 2020

Zhang Xiaotian

Director of the Institute of National Defense and Military Development Strategy, College of National Security, PLA National Defense University

Xu Zhidong and Zhang Weiping

Associate Professors at the College of National Security, PLA National Defense University

The year 2020 is coming to an end, with COVID-19 raging across the world and competing conflict events. In the past year, the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world, strength competition among major countries continued, adjustment of the world pattern accelerated, regional hotspots flared up here and there, and security risks in all areas rose in parallel. This year witnessed the accelerated collapse of the old order and the tortuous brewing of a new pattern, and was also the starting point of a turbulent and in-depth transformation of the international military struggle and security situation.

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerates the evolution of the world landscape

The law of history shows that the evolution of the international system never moves in a linear manner, nor does the rise and fall of the strength of major countries, but instead is a process of accumulation, emergence, spurting, leaping and restructuring between quantitative changes and qualitative changes. The COVID-19 outbreak throughout the year once again demonstrated the non-linear logic of the evolution of human society and the world pattern, accelerating the original pace of development.

The year 2020 is the year of the rampant COVID-19 outbreak. This year, COVID-19 pandemic spread worldwide, with cases in more than 180 countries and regions, nearly 80 million people infected, and more than 1.6 million people died. Although a variety of vaccines will be put into use by the end of the year, the pandemic will not disappear immediately, but will continue for a period of time. At present, the impact of the pandemic has gone far beyond the field of public health, covering all aspects of human life, economic development, political stability, the survival of political regime, party elections and the use of resources, etc. Because of the different interests, strategies and measures taken by different countries in the pandemic outbreak, are also companied by political, economic, military, scientific and technological, cultural and other aspects games-play. The longer the pandemic lasts, the more intense the battles against it become, with multi-domain linkage, mutual transmission and global expansion, and various uncertainties and risks are on the rise.

As the COVID-19 pandemic accompanied a profound change unseen in a century, the adjustment of the world pattern was significantly accelerated. In history, the adjustment of the world pattern is always accompanied by large-scale wars and turbulence. The larger the scale and the higher the intensity of a war are, the greater the extent of reshaping the world pattern becomes. In addition to wars, epidemics and various crises in history have weakened the foundations of many countries and affected the direction of civilization many times. The COVID-19 pandemic, similar to impact of a war, is an important step in the transformation of the world pattern, although it cannot completely shake the original world pattern. With development of the pandemic, magnificent changes are taking place in the distribution of strength of major countries, the situation of world security and development, and the form of international struggle.

Major countries compete in adjusting their strategic layout

Apart from having more comprehensive strength than most small and medium-sized countries, one of the most important reasons why a major country has become a major country is that it has stronger strategic enterprising. When crises and turbulence arrive, they have the courage to respond to them, the courage to turn them into opportunities, and the ability to create a new situation in the changing situations. In this sense, being aggressive and active in shaping is the essential temperament of a major country, and those who are passive conservative defenders will fall into the abyss of history. The year 2020 will be a year of competition among major countries. In the face of a strategic environment of soaring uncertainties, major countries such as the United States and Russia are actively planning to gain the initiative.

The Trump administration regards China and Russia as its strategic competitors. Guided by the "America First" policies, it pursues the "all-government China strategy" and speeds up its layout in accordance with a series of strategic plans such as the National Defense Strategy and the Indo-Pacific Strategy, making every effort to obstruct and suppress China. The first is to strengthen the illegal U.S.-Taiwan partnership and tighten the chain of blockade at China's doorstep. In March, Trump signed the Taipei Bill Act, which requires the U.S. administration to strengthen or reduce economic, security and diplomatic ties with Taiwan based on other countries' relations with Taiwan. In July, the U.S. Senate proposed inviting Taiwan to participate in the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercises and the docking of U.S. hospital ships on Taiwan in the National Defense Authorization Act of 2021. In defiance of China's warnings, the United States approved six arms sales to Taiwan in 2020, worth $5.8 billion in total. Secondly, strengthen military activities in the South China Sea to tighten control over China's maritime gateway to the south. In the first half of the year, the U.S. military aircraft made more than 2,000 fly sorties in the South China Sea. In July, the U.S. two aircraft carrier groups held exercises and training twice in the South China Sea. These activities have a tendency to shift from close reconnaissance to provocation pressure and combat exercises. Thirdly, strengthen cooperation with Allies and partners in an attempt to build a China containment alliance. In November, the United States, Japan, Australia and India held joint military exercises, the nature of which is shifting from the so-called maritime security cooperation to multinational coalition operations. The United States and its Allies routinely monitor China's military activities in distant waters and strengthen their military presence in China's neighborhood and across the Indo-Pacific region. On November 17, the U.S. Secretary of the Navy called for the establishment of a "No.1 fleet" close to the crossroads between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Meantime, the United States accelerated the process of troop reduction and withdrawal from other regions, but the U.S. Department of Defense declares that "the withdrawn forces are mainly used for the strategic competition among great powers to ensure the strategic advantage in the competition among great powers".

While consolidating its regional influence, Russia has actively invested in regions of concerned interests and taken new steps in the turbulent period of the epidemic outbreak. Firstly, having established military bases in Africa resolutely. In August, U.S. media reported that Russia hopes to build six military bases in Africa. In November, Russia signed an agreement with Sudan to build a military base in the country. It is the first time Russia has a military base in Africa since the collapse of the Soviet Union and a major step on its path back to be a world major power. Secondly, forcefully turn the tide of the war in Syria. In 2020, Russia continued to maintain its military presence in Syria, supported the Bashar regime, restrained the attempts of the United States, Israel, Turkey and other countries in Syria, and further enhanced its influence in the Middle East. Thirdly, flexibly mediate the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. On November 9, Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia reached an agreement to stop the military conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh region between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Russia's ability to shape the direction of the conflict in a complex situation shows its strategic skill and its influence gets another plus. Fourthly, strengthen military deployment on the Southern Kuril Islands (known as the Northern Four Islands in Japan). In December, Russia deployed its S-300V4 air defense missile system to the South Kuril Islands, paying close attention to the trend of the situation in the Northwest Pacific.

Countries such as Japan, India, the United Kingdom and France are also making active arrangements. Based on seeking improvement in stability, Japan’s strategic deployment explores expansion of its influence in the region and even the world at large. In October after new Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga visited Vietnam and expressed his willingness to strengthen cooperation with Vietnam, the two countries signed an agreement on defense equipments and technology transfer. In November, the Japanese government decided to extend by a year theduration of a fleet of corvette and early warning aircraft that patrol the Middle East waters. India's strategic layout is focused on regional conflicts, seeking military advantages on land borders and in the Indian Ocean. Since the beginning of this year, India has repeatedly increased its military activities in the border areas and Kashmir region, triggering military crises on several occasions. The impact of domestic pandemic outbreak has pushed India into predicament at home and abroad. The United Kingdom is strategically positioned to retain international influence. On November 19, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the strengthening of the defense policy, the establishment of a new national cyber force and space command, and the planned normal stationing of the "Queen Elizabeth"-class aircraft carrier to Asia. France focuses on European security cooperation, improves regional defense capabilities and tries to maintain its influence elsewhere. In November, for example, a French Emeraude-class nuclear submarine and the Seine-class support ship docked at a U.S. base in Guam.

The international security ecology has undergone a qualitative change

The frequency and intensity of the use of forces by some countries is an important indicator to measure the international strategic situation. During a decade since the end of the Cold War, it is the United States, the only major power that launched military operations against several small and medium-sized countries. Beginning in 2008, Russia launched a military offense against Georgia. After 2014, several regional powers also used force to start fighting. This year, not only major countries in the world and in the region are bold to use force, so are many small and medium-sized countries too, thus the international security ecosystem is undergoing a qualitative change.

Launching a fight for competing control of territory. The first is the conflict between India and Pakistan. India is a regional power, but acts like a small country in style and magnanimity, with a strong speculative mentality and unrealistic illusions about its border territories, which have generated many crises. In February 2019, the IAF attacked Pakistan across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Kashmir. This year, India continuously seeks to tighten its de facto control of the border areas, sparking several skirmishes. For example, in November and December, India and Pakistan repeatedly met in military conflicts in Kashmir, with dozens of casualties on both sides. Secondly, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. From September 27 to November 9, a military conflict broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh region, leaving more than 4,000 people dead, more than 8,000 injured and tens of thousands displaced. Turkey and Russia are of great concern to the fighting. Turkey expressed its support for Azerbaijan, and Russia actively mediated and sent peacekeeping troops to Nagorno-Karabakh region after the signing of the ceasefire agreement, which further enhanced its impact on regional affairs.

Civil strife and proxy wars continue. One is the nearly decade-old conflict in Syria. Since Russia sends troops to Syria, the situation in Syria moves toward stability. However, Syria is a war zone involved with the United States, Russia, Turkey, Iran and other countries, and there is still occasional fighting this year. For example, on the night of December 6, 2020, a Syrian army armored personnel carrier was destroyed by Turkish forces. Two is the military conflict in Libya. Since April 2019, the eastern Libyan armed forces of the "National Army" launched the battle for Tripoli, and ran into stalemate with the government armed forces, until October 2020 the first ceasefire agreement signed. Three is the conflict in Donbas. In Eastern Europe, the conflict in Donbas has been going on for more than six years, with continuous clashes and casualties. In March 2020, for example, a Ukrainian rotating force was attacked in Donbas, 200 killed. On April 2, the operational headquarters of Ukraine's joint forces revealed that more than 50 Russian servicemen were killed in Donbas in March. Four is the conflict in Ethiopia. On 4 November, Ethiopian Tigray People's Liberation Front fighters launched a surprise attack on the bases of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) in Tigre state, who was then met with clean-up counterattack by the ENDF. The fighting by the end of November resulted in displacement of hundreds of thousands of people.

Flagrant assassination occasionally occurs in international struggles in the past, but in 2020 became an important tool. On January 3, the United States used human intelligence, drone surveillance and attacks to kill Iranian General Suleimani, opening the floodgates to assassinate strategic targets. From July to September, there were unexplained attacks and fires in many places in Iran. On November 27, Iran's chief nuclear scientist, M. Fakhrizadeh, was killed in a surprise attack near Tehran. These happenings have pushed assassination to the strategic forefront, turned it into blatant killing and set a bad precedent.

There are new changes in war- fighting. Changes in military operational styles stem from scientific and technological innovation and from development of military struggle practice. In recent years, a new round of technological revolution, industrial revolution and military revolution has developed rapidly, and breakthroughs in science and technology represented by unmanned and intelligent technologies show emerging trend, providing technological support for changes in military operational forms. Meanwhile, strategic competition among major countries is intensifying, military conflicts erupt among small countries, and so technology, demand and practice are catalyzing new changes in military operational styles.

Unmanned systems are widely used in combat. In the past, unmanned systems are used by the U.S. military in Afghanistan and Iraq, and by the Russian military in Syria, but their functions and applications are limited. This year's Nagorno-Karabakh conflict shows that drones are widely used not only by world powers, but also by small and medium-sized countries, and unmanned systems become one of the main forces in the battlefield. In the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the small scale and old aircraft of the two air forces made it difficult to carry out air combat in the traditional sense. Both sides used a large number of unmanned aerial vehicles in order to seek advantages, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict became the first large-scale local war using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). The excellent performance of UAV, with its high survivability, low cost, flexibility and multi-mission capability, highlights the development potential of unmanned warfare.

Intelligent attacks on high-value strategic targets. This pattern is reflected in two raids and assassinations. On January 3, U.S. forces killed Iranian General M. Suleimani. It is the "MQ-9" UAV that carries out the attack mission, flying at an altitude of several thousand meters, carrying a variety of detection equipments, tracking and monitoring the target for a long time, and choosing the best time to launch the attack, but it is difficult for ground personnel to find its air position. On November 27th Iran's chief nuclear scientist, M. Fakhrizadeh, was killed in a surprise attack carried out by a remote-controlled machine gun installed in a car. This killing is more advanced than the killing of Suleimani. This kind of ground unmanned system, with simple structure and small shape, can camouflage and conceal according to the environment, and its ambush array position is difficult to be found by either human eyes or visible light detection means. Such incidents show that the use of unmanned systems to attack strategic targets is becoming mature, and a Pandora's Box is opened.

Driven by war demands and artificial intelligence technology, unmanned combat systems such as unmanned aircraft, unmanned underwater devices, unmanned ships, unmanned vehicles and others show an explosive growth trend, and innovative operational styles such as unmanned cluster warfare, man-machine hybrid warfare, cloud warfare, algorithmic warfare, and cognitive warfare with intelligent characteristics are in full play. Director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center of the U.S. Department of Defense believes that artificial intelligence is essential for accumulating basic combat advantages, and artificial intelligence is not information technology. The widespread application of artificial intelligence in actual combat operations is bringing revolutionary changes to warfare.

The development of new domains and new quality forces accelerates

Innovation ability is the core competitiveness of an army. Against the backdrop of increasingly fierce international struggles, various countries are strengthening military innovation and seeking breakthroughs in new fields and means.

Hypersonic means are blowing out. In this respect, the Russian army is leading the way. On November 26, Russia successfully again test-fired the Zircon hypersonic missiles from the Admirali Gorshkov Frigate and the Kazan nuclear submarine. On December 13, Russian Zvezda television broadcast the first video footage of the Avangard hypersonic intercontinental missile that Putin says can travel at 20 times the speed of sound and has the ability to glide and penetrate U.S. missile defense systems. The Russian military plans to equip a large number of new and old ships with Zircon hypersonic missiles and mass produce Vanguard hypersonic missiles. The U.S. military accelerates testing to push for early deployment. On March 19, the U.S. military conducted a successful launch and flight-test of a sea, land and air "universal hypersonic glide vehicle" at the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Hawaii. The U.S. military on August 8 conducted an airborne flight-test of an air-launched hypersonic missile, the AGM-183, which is scheduled to become the first hypersonic weapon for real combat application by the U.S. Air Force in 2022. In September, the U.S. Association of Applied Science and Technology Research completed the project study of the "Hypersonic Production Accelerator Facility" to promote the efficient mass production of hypersonic cruise missiles.

Breakthroughs are made in the development of laser weapons. The U.S. military has made great efforts to develop laser weapons, and several laser systems are tested on ships in 2020. On May 22, for example, the U.S. Navy's Pacific Fleet announced that the USS Portland, an amphibious transport dock ship, conducted a test of a 150-kilowatt ship-borne solid-state laser weapon，that successfully destroyed a drone. The U.S. aircraft carrier USS Ford has added a large box-shaped "wing" structure to its stern for laser weapons. The U.S. Navy plans to equip seven warships with new laser weapon systems within three years, and the U.S. Army and Space Force are also developing laser weapons with different energy levels.

The race for nuclear strength continues to heat up. Against the backdrop of intensified strategic competitions among major powers, the role of nuclear forces becomes more highlighted. The United States has strengthened its nuclear arsenal and comprehensively and promptly deployed low-yield nuclear weapons. Earlier this year, the U.S. military announced that it had deployed W76-2 low-yield submarine-launched missile nuclear warheads on the Ohio-class strategic nuclear submarines, marking a further lowering of the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by the United States. Russia continues to strengthen its nuclear strategic capabilities. Following the commissioning of the first special nuclear submarine "Belgorod" carrying "Poseidon" nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicles, Russia's "Khabarovsk" has also been launched. The two new nuclear submarines can each carry six "Poseidon" nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicles. On December 12, a strategic nuclear submarine of Russia's Pacific Fleet launched four Brava submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in succession, indicating that this type of missile has combat capability.

The militarization of space is accelerating. Since the beginning of this year, the United States has significantly upgraded its space development and combat capabilities. In August, the U.S. Space Force officially rolled out its doctrine entitled "Spacepower." In October, the Space Command was established with the main responsibility of training the Space Force and promoting the formation of combat readiness capabilities. In November, the Space Force issued its first Guidelines for Space Operations Planning, introducing new concepts such as orbital warfare, cyber warfare and electromagnetic warfare in space, and actively building the "Star Link" and "war cloud" systems. The integration of space, network and electro-magnetic is accelerating. Other nations are also stepping up their efforts to develop military capabilities in space. In May, Japan's Air Self-Defense Force established its first space force, the Cosmos Battle Team. In September, the French Air Force, renamed the Air Force, set its sights higher and farther into space.

(Edited excerpts of the article in Guangming Daily, 20 December 2020.)