新马高铁项目终止，跨境合作未来如何才能亮绿灯

黄昀昀

2021年3月29日，马来西亚和新加坡最终仍未能就新马高铁（也称新隆高铁）计划达成一致，该项目在历经马来西亚三任总理更迭、两度推迟后，以马来西亚向新加坡赔付约1.028亿新加坡元（约合5.013亿元人民币）正式告终。

那么，两国专家、民众对这样的结果是何态度，该计划为何取消，中国会受到什么影响呢？

新马达成“全面和最终解决方案”

2021年1月1日，新加坡和马来西亚政府发布联合声明，宣布了2021年首个重磅消息：协商、筹备多年的新马高铁项目正式“夭折”。关于该高铁的种种愿望皆化作泡影。3月29日，新马再次发表联合声明指出，两国在马来西亚政府核实费用支出情况后，通过友好协议的方式解决了赔偿问题，两国就高铁双边协议终止达成“全面和最终解决方案”。

这么些年来，新马高铁走过了怎样的历程？该项目于2010年，由马来西亚时任总理纳吉布为促进经济转型提出。2016年，马新两国正式签署双边协定，该项目正式拍板定案。按照设计方案，该高铁连接马来西亚吉隆坡与新加坡，全长350公里，极大便利了民众的“双城生活”，单程用时由4小时缩短至90分钟。

据日本亚洲经济研究所学者的测算，虽然该项目对两国经济带动的直接作用不明显，但高铁本身将在旅游业、供应链和零售业等领域创造就业和增长机会。新马双方的劳动力市场的匹配度也会进一步提高。

而2018年，马来西亚前总理马哈蒂尔上任数月后，就以财政吃紧为由，提出推迟这一高铁项目。即使新加坡持谨慎态度，但最终双方还是同意将该项目延迟至2020年5月31日再启动。这是该项目第一次延期。

2020年初，马来西亚政坛风云变幻，穆希丁领导的国民联盟政府上台。当年5月31日，马新双方同意高铁项目第二次，也是最后一次延期至2020年12月31日。11月，马来西亚积极表态，称该国已经对项目提出修改意见，正在与新加坡政府讨论。但双方还是未能在此期限前达成一致，2021年1月1日，马新两国宣布新马高铁项目终结。

那么，该计划告吹以后，直接受益方——民众，作何表态？吉隆坡人邱汉伟说：“我每次开车往返两地得花上8小时。我其实很向往能搭乘高铁在一天内往返两地开会。”在他看来，少了这条高铁，有吉隆坡中央商业区之称的敦拉萨国际贸易中心也将失去它的光环，“建造新隆高铁的其中一项计划就是连接吉隆坡敦拉萨国际贸易中心和新加坡的裕廊区这两座商业城。如今，这个计划将无法落实。”

此外，于新加坡而言，该项目的取消还使新加坡错失通过陆路联通亚洲其他地区的机会。“在新马高铁计划下，我国原本是终点站，这样一来乘客可以搭乘高铁从新加坡直达马来西亚，然后可以前往泰国等亚洲其他地区。以更长远和宏观的角度来说，我国已经失去了这个机会。尤其在现在的新冠肺炎疫情之下，搭火车、高铁等似乎比飞行更‘安全。”新加坡新跃社科大学商学院副教授特斯拉更是直言这样的结果对两国而言，是“双输局面”。

新马高铁黄了的背后原因

对于该项目取消的原因，马来西亚与新加坡各持不同的说法。马来西亚总理府经济事务部长穆斯塔法于2021年1月2日发表声明说，马方曾对新马高铁项目计划提出了多项修改建议，包括项目结构、路线和车站设计等，目的是希望能在融资选择上更灵活;也希望通过高铁项目使马经济在新冠肺炎疫情后更快地复苏。马新就各自的立场讨论了多次，未能达成一致。

对此，马来西亚媒体称，在两国谈判期间，马方要求将该高铁延长至吉隆坡附近的国际机场，但新加坡拒绝这一想法，原因是这会对新加坡作为航空中心的地位构成威胁。

同是1月2日，新加坡交通部长王乙康指出，新马两国协商破裂主因在于双方对高铁资产管理公司的安排有重大分歧。

由于新马两国都没有运营高鐵的专业知识和经验，双方同意通过公开、透明的国际招标，委任一家最优秀的业者担任资产管理公司，以确保跨境高铁服务能得到优先照顾。高铁资产管理公司须同时向两国政府负责。根据规划，高铁资产管理公司的责任，包括负责新马高铁列车及铁路设备的设计、建造、融资和维修等工作。

王乙康说：“对新加坡来说，资产管理公司是高铁项目的核心，有资产管理公司才能确保两国利益都得到保障，并有助于减少两国未来数十年运营高铁项目的漫长过程中，出现分歧和纠纷的可能性。因此，新加坡告知马来西亚，剔除资产管理公司是在根本上背离高铁协定，我方不能接受。马方于是决定让高铁协定终止。”

如果说上述原因属于项目取消的导火索，那么更深层的原因或许在于新冠肺炎疫情对马来西亚经济造成的严重冲击。2020年6月，世界银行将马来西亚2020年的经济增速下调至-3.1%。8月，马来西亚议会通过决议，允许该国新政府的债务负担提升至占GDP的60%，以缓解疫情对企业的冲击。此外，国际油价的下跌也是导致马来西亚财政紧缩的一个重要原因。

但抛开该项目取消的负面影响，两国还是将谋求双边关系的长远发展作为他们未来合作的方向。新马政府在1月1日的联合声明中强调：“两国仍将致力于维持良好双边关系，并在加强两国互联互通等多个领域密切合作。”

新马高铁没了，对中国有何影响和启示？

虽然新马高铁不是由中国企业承建的项目，但该项目与中国倡导的“泛亚铁路”息息相关。按原计划，该铁路可使云南昆明成为中国陆路进入东南亚的重要入口，通过即将通车的中老铁路、在建的中泰铁路，经老挝、泰国延伸至马来西亚和新加坡，实现东南亚地区和中国更好的互联互通，将给铁路沿线地区带来巨大的经济效益。

“该项目取消后，可能对总投资约374亿元人民币的中老铁路产生复杂的影响。”中国社科院亚太与全球战略研究院研究员钟飞腾援引其他论者的话称，如果中老铁路不能延伸至东南亚的经济中心，那么它的价值会受到一定影响。

另一方面，从此次马来西亚对新马高铁建设的表态中，我们不难看出马方对融资灵活性的诉求，以及新冠肺炎疫情冲击下，马来西亚政府面对经济下行的巨大压力。基于此，短期内，马来西亚政府对大型基础设施建设的支持力度或有所减弱，即便推动大型项目投资，也可能更倾向于在项目中看到本土企业的身影。这对于包括中国投资者在内的外国投资人来说，都是需要考量的问题。

在新冠肺炎疫情依然此起彼伏的東南亚，复苏经济的压力显然不止于马来西亚。在后疫情时代与东盟国家开展跨境合作，投资者们或许需要在投资领域、融资渠道、合作模式上探索更多新的可能。

Southeast Asias electric vehicle  （EV） and battery industries are quickly gaining momentum， as manufacturers in Thailand and Vietnam scale up production and high-profile foreign investors like Tesla and Nissan show increasing interest.

As Southeast Asia looks for ways to recover from the economic impacts of the COVID-19， the regions EV and battery industry appears poised for growth. Foreign manufacturers from China and the US have moved to enter the market and invest in Indonesia， Thailand and elsewhere， while domestic companies in Thailand and Vietnam have launched new manufacturing pushes

Foreign investment in EVs continues despite pandemic

In Indonesia， the EV and battery industry is now the major source of foreign investment， reportedly accounting for 70% in 2020. Investors are attracted in large part because Indonesia has the largest nickel reserves in the world — 23% of global reserves. Nickel is necessary for EV battery production and the Indonesian government reinstated its ban on exporting nickel ore in January 2020.

Indonesias highest profile proposal has come from Tesla. The Indonesian government hasnt released details on Teslas proposal but has sought the companys support to develop its EV industry. “If they only want to buy raw materials， we are not interested. This （proposal） is beyond just taking the raw material，” said Septian Hario Seto， Indonesias Deputy Head of Investment and Mining Coordination.

In December， Indonesia also signed a US$ 9.8 billion investment deal with South Koreas LG Group to produce lithium batteries for vehicles. The deal is one of the worlds first efforts to integrate mineral mining， processing and battery production. Indonesia also has similar plans with Chinas Contemporary Amperex Technology  Co.， Limited （CATL）. In addition to exports， the first batches of batteries will be put to use in Jakartas buses， as the city works to shift to EVs by 2027.

In Thailand， Nissan has invested heavily in plans to make the country a hub for EV manufacturing. The Japanese manufacturer is also developing technology that allows electric cars to run without the need to plug in to a charging station. As Southeast Asian countries have little to no EV infrastructure， this could have a major impact on the region.

Vietnamese firm to lead on EV exports

Vietnam faces the same lack of charging stations as the rest of the region， but megacorporation Vingroup says its subsidiary VinFast will begin exporting EVs in November 2021. Vingroup is founded by Vietnams richest man， Pham Nhat Vuong， and is a key source of momentum behind the countrys EV industry.

VinFast announced in January that it will manufacture three electric sports utility vehicle （SUV） models for export to North America and Europe. All three will reportedly use artificial intelligence technology and be at least partially self-driving.

“This is a solid foundation for VinFast to reach its global vision and become a popular high-tech EV company in the world， as well as develop green transport ecosystem and reducing emissions，” Vingroup said in a press release.

VinFast first began production in 2019 but struggled to sell its EVs in Vietnam， in part because the country has very few charging stations. As the company turns towards international markets， it has focused on cars rather than its earlier models of electric motorbikes.

Chinese auto firm says Thai expansion will include EVs

Thailand hopes to convert 30% of its car production， or around 750，000 units， to EV by 2030. The investments from GWM in Nissan will help it meet its goal. But for now， the number of EVs on the road in Thailand remains very low， at just over 2，000 vehicles in 2020. According to many analysts， Thailands goals around EVs still fall far short of whats needed to have a significant positive environmental impact or to shift the countrys dependence on fossil fuels.

Though few consumers have made the switch， Thai companies have already begun producing tuk tuks and ferries. The city of Chiang Mai has seen electric tuk tuks for at least two years now and domestic startup Power Up TukTuk is building electric three-wheelers for people with mobility issues.

In the countrys south， fossil fuel energy conglomerate Banpu has started to push electric ferries in Phuket and nearby areas. The ferries are part of a collaboration with Sakun C， a subsidiary of Choknamchai Group， one of the regions automotive heavyweights and the local partner of Honda， Toyota and Nissan.

The country EV push also has the backing of its national power company， the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand （EGAT）. “The government set a goal that by 2037， there should be around 2.5 million EV cars and in order to get to that point， the government must support the building of infrastructure， the change of mindsets and making people trust that if they use EVs， it will be safe，” said Somchai Chokmaviroj， director of EGATs Research and Innovation Division.

Mass adoption of EVs depends on targeted， equitable government policies

In the US， car manufacturers and the government have so far failed to make EVs affordable enough to cater to the majority of the population. Being eco-friendly requires significant disposable income. In most Southeast Asian markets， the solution likely lies in mass rollout of electric motorbikes.

According to Pew Research data from 2014， over 80% of households in Indonesia， Malaysia， Thailand and Vietnam own a motorcycle. When the same survey looked at car ownership， the picture was dramatically different： while over 80% of Malaysian households owned a car， that figure dropped to 51% in Thailand， 4% in Indonesia and 2% in Vietnam.

The UN Environment Programme is working with the private sector in Malaysia， the Philippines， Singapore and Thailand to find ways to promote a transition to electric motorbikes. Thailand also has plans to launch a trade-in scheme， though the plan is currently on hold.

Southeast Asia will likely continue to see its EV and battery industries grow as the region rides out the economic impacts of the COVID-19.

· Source： ASEAN Today