2021年数字教育发展观（四）

Efficiency

In most other sectors than education， smart technologies are used as a tool to enhance the cost-efficiency of operations， making services faster and often cheaper. While education might be behind most other sectors in this respect， digitalisation is also making many educational processes more efficient as interactions between stakeholders and educational institutions become increasingly automated. To what extent will digitalisation allow for enhanced cost-efficiency and productivity in education？

Digital technology has not always delivered on its cost-efficiency promises in the past because one has sometimes forgotten that， beyond the initial investment， it needs to be continuously upgraded， maintained， etc. Nevertheless， as in other sectors， there are good reasons to believe that smart technologies could increase cost-efficiency in education.

One example lies in the application （and admission） process to educational institutions. They are increasingly undertaken through digital platforms， especially in higher education， where a “matching” （or selection） process is often necessary. In cases of open admission institutions， when no selection is required， implementing seamless automated processes is even easier.

A second area where digitalisation could possibly lead to cost-efficiency is the provision of verifiable degrees and other credentials on blockchain. The gradual development of an infrastructure for digital credentials and the adoption of open standards will gradually lead to a different way of certifying and holding degrees， with individuals being able to manage their qualifications themselves.

A third area where cost-efficiency is underway is the collection of system-level statistical information. While statistical information often relied on the establishment of statistical panels （of representative samples of individuals or institutions） and often involved multiple handlings of the same data， the use of administrative data combined with the interoperability of diverse systems has made it much easier to get statistical information from operational services in almost real time.

Concluding remarks

Introducing digital tools in schools and universities may not have a narrow objective but be a tool to trigger change and improvement efforts. It is also a way for formal education to be part of its digital time. Should schools and universities resist or embrace digitalisation， which is gaining ground in all OECD societies， regardless of what happens in education？ While formal education systems should empower everyone to enjoy， access and learn from all the knowledge and experiences that have been developed by humanity， education should be more than a museum.

One scenario would be for education to change minimally and continue to have little adoption of technology and digital resources in teaching and learning. This may mean that most smart technologies would be available privately for out-of-school learning for those who can afford it. The education technology market would continue to mainly target its supply to the informal education market and corporate training. One long-term question in this scenario is whether education systems will remain relevant and whether out-of-school learning could become as important or more important than in-school learning.

A second scenario would be for education to look similar， on the surface， but become quite different， exactly as cars or planes look more or less the same as 40 years ago， but have become quite different now that they are fully equipped with sensors and computing devices. Education establishments may also become connected buildings with cameras， sensors and digital devices supporting students， teachers and administrators to make decisions to improve their teaching， learning and management practices. Technology may also become more prevalent for learning at home， with more intelligent tutoring resources etc. available for everyone to use.

A third scenario could be for education to build on smart technologies and other social trends related to digitalisation to reshape as a social institution. People may increasingly telework， more schoolwork may happen at home， sometimes with more involvement of parents and communities， and social time in school may become used mainly for individual tutoring and collective learning.

The two latter scenarios would have implications for teachers and the main aspects of teaching， but also for what it means to be a student and how parents can support their children. Similar scenarios could be envisaged when it comes to the management of education systems and organisations. For example， many administrative processes could be fully automated， from assessments to the allocation of students to different educational institutions.

Of course， the future might hold completely different scenarios or any combination of them. But now is the time to think about what is possible and how digital technology can best support the improvement of education.

譯文

成本效益

除教育外的多数其他领域中，智能技术被用作提高运营成本效益的工具，使服务更快捷低廉。虽然在这方面，教育可能落后于大多数其他领域，但随着利益相关者和教育机构间的交互日益自动化，数字化也使许多教育过程更加高效。但数字化能在多大程度上提高教育的成本效益呢？

过去，数字技术并不总能兑现其成本效益承诺，因为人们有时会忘记，除了初始投资，技术还需要不断升级、维护等。然而，和其他领域一样，我们有充分的理由相信智能技术可以提高教育的成本效益。

例如，教育机构申请（和录取）的过程越来越多地通过数字平台进行，特别是在高等教育中，匹配（或选择）过程通常是必要的。在開放录取机构的情况下，当不需要选择时，实现无缝自动化流程就更容易了。

数字化可能带来成本效益的第二个领域是在区块链上提供可验证的学位证书和其他证书。数字证书基础设施的逐步发展和开放标准的采用，将逐步使人们以不同方式来认证和持有学位，个人将能够自己管理自己的资格。

正在进行成本效益评估的第三个领域是收集系统级统计信息。虽然统计信息往往依赖于（个人或机构的代表性样本的）统计小组的建立，而且往往涉及对同一数据的多次处理，但管理数据的使用与不同系统的互操作性相结合，使得从运营服务中获取统计信息变得更加容易，几近实时。

结束语

在中小学和大学中引入数字工具可能并不是狭隘的目标，而是一种触发变革和改进成果的工具。这也是正规教育成为数字时代一部分的一种方式。数字化正在所有经合组织的社会中占据一席之地，学校和大学是否应该抵制或接受数字化而不管教育领域发生了什么？虽然正规教育系统应该使每个人都能够享受、获得和学习人类发展的所有知识和经验，但教育不应该仅仅是一个博物馆。

第一种情况是教育的变化最小，未来教学和学习中依旧很少采用技术和数字资源。这可能意味着，大多数智能技术都将用来为那些有能力负担的人提供私人的校外学习。教育技术市场将继续主要面向非正规教育市场和企业培训。这种情况衍生的一个长期问题是，教育系统是否仍将保持相关性，校外学习是否会变得与校内学习同等重要或更加重要。

第二种情况是，教育从表面上看是相似的，但会变得非常不同，就像汽车或飞机的样子与40年前看起来差不多，但现在已经配备了传感器和计算设备，变得非常不同。教育机构也可能成为配备摄像头、传感器和数字设备的互联建筑，支持学生、教师和管理人员做出改进教学、学习和管理实践的决策。在家学习的技术应用也可能变得更加普遍，有更多的智能辅导等资源可供每个人使用。

第三种情况可能是，教育将建立在智能技术和其他与数字化相关的社会趋势的基础上，重塑为一种社会机构。人们可能会越来越多地进行远程工作，可能会有更多的家庭作业，家长和社区有时会更多地参与其中，学校的社交时间可能主要用于个人辅导和集体学习。

后两种情况会对教师和教学的主要方面产生影响，但也会影响作为学生的意义以及父母如何支持他们的孩子。在教育系统和组织的管理方面，也可以设想类似的情况。例如，许多管理过程可以完全自动化，从评估到将学生分配到不同的教育机构。

当然，未来可能会出现完全不同的情况，或者是上述情况的任意组合。但现在是思考什么是可能的，以及数字技术如何能够最好地支持教育改善的时候了。