中巴经济走廊建设的机遇与挑战

李卉嫔

从中国新疆喀什出发，经中巴边境红其拉甫口岸从巴基斯坦北部进入巴国，一路穿越高山峡谷、平原丘陵、戈壁荒漠，最后到达南部的瓜达尔港，直通阿拉伯海。这条从喀什到瓜达尔港的经济大动脉，加强了中巴两国互联互通，进一步深化了中巴全天候战略合作伙伴关系，这就是2013年中巴经济走廊提出的重要战略设想。

如今6年过去，走廊建设第一阶段的能源电力项目和交通基础设施项目已经完成或正在进行中，为巴基斯坦下一步的经济发展奠定了良好的基础。目前，走廊建设进入以产业发展、农业合作、社会民生发展的新阶段，又会面临哪些机遇与挑战？

“第一阶段很少有项目落地开普省，希望我们在第二阶段不会再被落下。”“作为中巴经济走廊的门户，吉尔吉特却少有走廊项目，希望我们地区的经济能跟随走廊建设一起发展。”在与白沙瓦、吉尔吉特等地的智库学者、企业家及商协会组织代表座谈时，与会代表急切地提出了自己的意见。走廊建设要实现互联互通，最基础的是要通路、通电、通网（讯）和语言相通，而这些在巴基斯坦的发展并不均衡。

白沙瓦是巴西北部开普省首府，该省与阿富汗接壤，境内多干燥岩石，工业基础薄弱且面临安全挑战；同样工业落后的还有西南部地广人稀的俾路支省，该省多沙漠，地质松软，修路难度大；位于巴北部的吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦地区，与中国新疆接壤，境内多高山，修路极其艰难，20世纪60年代，中国帮助其修建喀喇昆仑公路期间，约有700名中巴建设者为此付出了生命。恶劣的地理、地质条件和不稳定的政治环境，加剧了基础设施建设的难度。要改变这一状况，需要中巴双方携手尤其是巴方各地方政府重点发力，引进多方资源和力量，来破解制约道路基础设施及能源电力项目落地的障碍。

值得欣慰的是，如今连通巴基斯坦几个重要城市间的高速公路已基本建成通车，比如伊斯兰堡-白沙瓦，伊斯兰堡-拉合尔，拉合尔-卡拉奇的高速公路，巴基斯坦的高速公路网基本形成，大大节省了运输时间。“我们能明显感觉到城市间的距离缩短了，这将有利于沿线经济的发展和人们生活水平的提升。”开普省省长Rashid Aman接受记者采访时说道。

除了交通基础设施建设，能源的充足供应也是发展经济的先决条件。中巴经济走廊框架下确定了15个能源电力项目，其中10个发电站项目已实现并网发电，解决了绝大部分地区缺电的问题。

“吉尔吉特有充足的水资源，水电站开发潜力大，真希望中企能在这里建一个水电站。现在这里平均每天停电6小时-10小时，很多酒店、大型企业不得不自备发电机，噪音污染、空气污染十分严重。”吉尔吉特一家酒店老板说道，仿佛为了印证他的话，话音刚落，酒店区域就一片漆黑。对于这个以旅游业为支柱产业的地区，频繁停电对酒店的影响十分严重。

在巴基斯坦采访的20多天里，记者深入体会了巴国的4G网络。除首都伊斯兰堡、拉合尔等主要城市市区外，其他地方如市郊、北部山区，4G网络基本覆盖不到，尤其在吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦山区，甚至连通信信号都没有。

作为巴基斯坦当地的NGO（非政府）组织，SEEDO可以帮助吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦地区的优秀学生申请中国政府设立的“丝路奖学金”，并到中国学习先进的技术知识，毕业后能有一份不错的工作。申请可以直接在网上操作，但吉尔吉特很多地方不通网络，网上申请很难进行，只能人工递交材料，效率低下让很多吉尔吉特学生遗憾地与留学名额错过。“我们的很多学生上不了网，甚至都不能及时得到申请奖学金的消息。”SEEDO的总裁Aziz Karim对此深表可惜。

“中文对我们来说是最重要的外语，如果能在吉尔吉特办一所孔子学校教授汉语，那就太棒了！”Karim表示，吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦作为中国人进入巴基斯坦的门户，随着旅游业不断发展，会有越来越多中国人过来，学好中文可以和中国人自如交流，了解中国人的思维方式，将减少语言不通带来的障碍和误会。加之被派往中国留学的吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦当地学生，也要求其在一年之内通过汉语四级考试才能继续留在中国深造，学成归国后他们也将服务于当地的经济建设。

今年5月，巴总理伊姆兰·汗访华期间，中巴双方一致同意，以经济特区为载体的产业合作将成为中巴经济走廊建设下一阶段的重点。

受“深圳模式”激励，2017年巴基斯坦拟在全国范围内优先建设9个经济特区，通过税收优惠和激励政策促进相关产业发展、经济增长，创造就业，提振境外投资。

位于开普省的拉沙卡伊（Rashakai）经济特区目前由中国路桥公司负责建设开发，有望成为走廊框架下首个落地的工业园区，已制定了10年免征企业所得税、运输费用减免25%等优惠政策以吸引外来投资。

目前，巴基斯坦已经形成了一些产业集聚区，如拉合尔（Lahore）海尔工业园的家电产业、锡亚尔科特（Sialkot）的手术用品产业、古吉拉特（Gujarat）的陶瓷产业、费萨拉巴德（Faisalabad）的成衣制造产业等，这些地区已经具备一定的工业发展软硬件基础，在这些区域建立经济特区，只要政策到位，在引进投资方面将更加高效。

经济特区的成功需要很多条件，包括税收激励政策、快速清关程序、完善的当地供应商体系、全球市场以及最重要的港口、铁路、公路等基础设施体系。仅税收激励这一项巴方就面临很大的困难，税收激励意味着政府在财政收入上的让步，但巴基斯坦即使在税率极高的情况下，2018-2019财年税收收入也仅占GDP比重的10%，财力十分紧张。经济特区的开发还面临政府管理方面的挑战，需要克服低效率的官僚主义、政策的不一致性以及各利益相关方互相扯皮等困难。世行最新报告显示，目前巴基斯坦营商环境在190个经济体中仅位列第136名。

以经济特区为载体的产业合作，在提升内外资联动的基础上还可促进出口贸易，增加出口创汇。巴基斯坦矿产资源尤其是宝石资源丰富，农牧产品等产量也很大，如果工业发展好了，将增加这些产品的附加值，提高出口收入。巴基斯坦国内经济学家普遍认为，巴在国际贸易上表现疲软，归根结底还是本国工业化程度太低，陷于“无商品可出口”境地。

当然，要发展本地的产业，本地人还需要主动承担起更多工作和责任。AKRSP总经理穆沙法（Musaffar）就表示，他们帮助吉尔吉特地区脱贫致富，并非是简单地给他们钱，而是把当地人充分组织起来，传授他们相关技能，让他们积极开展农业种植等工作，并让有能力的妇女也有机会担任领导（这对巴基斯坦来说是巨大的突破，巴基斯坦政府、企业、组织很少女性成员，更别说女性领导了）。AKRSP是一家帮助农村发展，农民脱贫致富的机构，数据显示，35年来，吉尔吉特地区贫困人口已经减少一半以上，彻底摆脱了巴基斯坦最穷区域的局面。

“近兩年到吉尔吉特地区的游客明显增长，估计有一半的游客来自中国。”正如CPEC（中巴经济走廊）研究中心主任Saranjam Baig的团队研究发现，中巴经济走廊建设给巴基斯坦旅游业发展带来了巨大的机遇。随着巴基斯坦开放度不断提高，越来越多国际游客尤其是来自中国的游客光顾此地。巴方也将旅游业作为中巴经济走廊下一阶段的发展重点之一。

巴旅游业融合了多姿多彩文化的建筑、汽车、人文风俗以及迤逦的自然风光，将繁忙的卡拉奇、精致的拉合尔、“新贵”伊斯兰堡、雪山环抱的吉尔吉特串联起来。随着“一带一路”建设和中巴经济走廊建设的不断推进，中国人逐渐开始发现巴基斯坦这片尚未被完全开发的旅游目的地。

“我们没有其他工业，旅游业是我们的唯一支柱产业，但我们缺乏资金建设高标准的酒店，提供不了高端服务，中国是我们学习的榜样，欢迎中国企业来这里投资。”吉尔吉特地区旅游协会的代表向中国发出邀请，希望中国企业能来这里投资餐馆、酒店，吸引更多的游客。

在罕萨和吉尔吉特的酒店，记者发现这里的服务与国际旅游目的地还有不小的距离。罕萨的酒店位于地下一层，房间的自来水直接引自外面沟渠的流水，浑浊中还带有不少泥沙。听当地人穆斯塔法（Mustafa）说，酒店的自来水大都如此，语气中带着些不以为意。吉尔吉特的酒店有些像中国的农家乐，一个小院里只有不到10个房间，环境清幽。

7月-8月是吉尔吉特旅游旺季，但除了零星的自驾游客，总人数并不多。吉尔吉特与中国没有直飞航班，机场很小，飞机小到仅能容纳几十人，因为要不停地穿过山脉，经常会遇到天气不好航班取消的情况。如果运气不好，可能还会因此滞留几天。“希望中巴两国能开通喀什直达吉尔吉特的航线和大巴，这样很多到喀什旅游的人也可以顺带到我们这里了。”旅行协会代表建议道。

鉴于巴基斯坦地理优势明显，人口基数大，中巴经济走廊建设蕴藏极大的发展机遇，但对于投资者来说，机遇与挑战是永远相伴相随的，看清形势、谨慎评估风险才有未来的无限可能；而对巴方来说，要发展除了要引进外资，更重要的是修好“内功”，完善自身的基础条件，灵活调整相关的政策法规以适应经济发展的需要，才是可持续发展之道。

Through mountains， valleys， plains， hills and Gobi Desert， a journey can be taken from Kashgar in Xinjiang， China to the Gwadar Port in the south of Pakistan to reach the Arabian Sea via Khunjerab Pass， the border between China and Pakistan. This economic artery from Kashgar to Gwadar Port has strengthened the interconnection between China and Pakistan and further enhanced the all-weather strategic partnership between China and Pakistan. This was the important strategic vision proposed during the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor （CPEC） in 2013.

Six years have passed since then， the energy， electricity and transportation infrastructure projects in the first stage of the CPEC construction have been completed or are in progress， laying a solid foundation for Pakistan’s further economic development. Currently， the CPEC construction has entered a new stage of industrial development， agricultural cooperation and social livelihood improvement. What are its opportunities and challenges？

“In the first stage， few projects were located in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. I hope we will not be ignored in the second stage.” “Few projects are located at Gilgit， the gateway to the CPEC. I hope our economy can be developed together with the CPEC construction.” During the discussion with think tank scholars， entrepreneurs and business associations from Peshawar， Gilgit， etc.， attendees eagerly put forward their own opinions. In order to realize interconnection， the most fundamental requirements are the access to roads， electricity and network （communication） as well as the removal of language barrier. However， the development of which is imbalanced in Pakistan.

Peshawar is the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa， which is in the northwest of Pakistan. This Province borders Afghanistan. There are lots of dry rocks within this place. Its industrial base is weak and faces security challenges. Balochistan， a sparsely populated province in the southwest， is also backward in industry. Most of this place is desert with loose soil. It makes it hard to build highways and railways. Gilgit-Baltistan， located in northern Pakistan， borders Xinjiang， China， with many mountains and extremely difficult conditions for road construction. In the 1960s when China helped it build Karakoram Highway， about 700 Chinese and Pakistani builders died for it.

Poor geographical and geological conditions and unstable political environment have aggravated the difficulty of infrastructure construction. To change this situation， China and Pakistan， especially the local governments of Pakistan， need to cooperate with each other， introduce various resources and forces to overcome the obstacles that restrict the implementation of road infrastructure， energy and power projects.

It is encouraging that the construction of highways connecting several major cities in Pakistan has been basically completed to provide transport services， such as Islamabad-Peshawar， IslamabadLahore， Lahore-Karachi highways， and Pakistan’s highway network has been basically formed， greatly saving the time for transportation. “We can obviously feel that the distance between cities has been shortened， which will be beneficial to the economic development along the roads and the improvement of people’s living standards.” Rashid Aman， provincial chief of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa， said in an interview to the reporter.

In addition to construction of transportation infrastructure， sufficient supply of energy also constitutes the premise of economic development. Under the framework of the CPEC， 15 energy and power projects have been confirmed， of which 10 power station projects have been connected to the grid to generate electricity， solving the problem of power shortage in most areas.

“Gilgit has sufficient water resources and great potential for hydropower development. I really hope that a hydropower station can be built here during the construction of CPEC. Now the average duration for power outage here is 6-10 hours per day. Many hotels and large enterprises have to prepare their own generators. So noise and air pollution are very severe.” A hotel owner in Gilgit said. His words soon came true， the hotel turned completely dark as soon as he finished speaking. Given that tourism is the mainstay industry in this region， frequent power outages have a negative impact on hotels.

During the more than 20 days of interviews in Pakistan， the reporter experienced its 4G network. Except in the downtown of major cities such as Islamabad （the capital） and Lahore， 4G network is basically not available in other places such as the suburbs and northern mountainous areas， especially in the Gilgit-Baltistan mountainous areas， where there are no communication signals.

As a local NGO in Pakistan， SEEDO can help outstanding students from Gilgit-Baltistan apply for the Silk Road Scholarship set up by the Chinese government， and learn advanced technical knowledge in China， so that they can find a good job after graduation. The application can be directly operated on the internet， which is， however， not available in many places in Gilgit. Due to that the online application is inaccessible， the materials can only be submitted offline. The inefficiency makes many Gilgit students regretfully miss the opportunity of studying abroad. “Many students cannot get online and even cannot receive the information of scholarship application in time.” Aziz Karim， president of SEEDO， said with profound regret.

“Chinese is the most important foreign language for us. It would be great if a Confucius school could be built in Gilgit to teach Chinese！” Karim said that， Gilgit-Baltistan is the gateway for Chinese to enter Pakistan， with the continuous development of tourism， more and more Chinese will come here. Learning Chinese well can facilitate the communication with the Chinese and understanding of their way of thinking， which will reduce the obstacles and misunderstandings caused by the language barrier. Local students from Gilgit-Baltistan sent to study in China also have to pass the HSK-4 within one year to stay in China for further study. Upon their return， they will join the local economic construction.

During Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to China in May this year， China and Pakistan agreed unanimously that industrial cooperation based on special economic zones （SEZs） will be the focus of the next stage of CPEC construction.

Inspired by the “Shenzhen Model”， Pakistan plans to give priority to the construction of 9 SEZs in 2017. The development of related industries， economic growth， job creation and overseas investment will be promoted through tax preference and incentive policies.

Rashakai Special Economic Zone， located in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa， is currently constructed and developed by the China Road and Bridge Corporation and is expected to be the first implemented industrial zone under the CPEC framework. Preferential policies such as exemption of 10-year corporate income tax and 25% reduction or exemption of transportation expenses have been formulated to attract foreign investment.

At present， some industrial clusters come into being in Pakistan， such as the home appliance industry in Lahore Haier Industrial Park， the surgical supplies industry in Sialkot， the ceramic industry in Gujarat， and the clothing manufacturing industry in Faisalabad. These regions already have a certain software and hardware foundation for industrial development. SEZs in these regions will attract investment more efficiently as long as policies are ready.

The success of SEZs requires many conditions， including tax incentives， fast customs clearance procedures， sound local supplier systems， global market and most importantly， infrastructure systems such as ports， railways and highways. Pakistan is facing great difficulties in tax incentive. Tax incentive means the government’s concession in fiscal revenue. However， even if the tax rate in Pakistan is extremely high， the tax revenue in fiscal year 2018-2019 only accounts for 10% of GDP. The government is short of financial resources. The development of SEZs also faces challenges in government management， and needs to overcome such difficulties such as inefficient bureaucracy， inconsistent policies and conflict among various stakeholders. According to the latest report of World Bank， Pakistan currently ranks 136th among 190 economies in terms of business environment.

Industrial cooperation based on SEZs can boost the linkage between domestic and foreign investment， promote export trade and increase foreign exchange through exports. Pakistan is rich in mineral resources， especially precious stones， and has a large output of agricultural and pastoral products. If the industry is well developed， the added value of these products and the export income will be increased. Pakistan’s domestic economists generally believe that Pakistan’s weak performance in international trade is ultimately due to its low level of industrialization and its plight of “no commodities to export”.

In order to develop local industries， local people need to actively undertake more work and responsibilities. Musaffar， General Manager of AKRSP（Aga Khan Rural Support Programme）， said that they did not simply give money to help people in Gilgit to get rid of poverty and become rich. Instead， they organized local people， taught them relevant skills， enabled them to actively carry out agricultural cultivation and other work， and allowed capable women to be the leaders （this is a great breakthrough for Pakistan because there are few female members in Pakistani government， enterprises and organizations， not to mention female leaders）.

AKRSP is an organization that promotes rural development and helps farmers to get rid of poverty and become rich. Data show that in the past 35 years， the poverty population in Gilgit has been reduced by more than half， completely getting rid of the situation of being the Pakistan’s poorest region.

“The number of tourists to Gilgit has increased significantly in the past two years. It is estimated that half of the tourists come from China.” According to the research by the team of Saranjam Baig， Director of the CPEC Research Center， the construction of CPEC has brought great opportunities to the development of Pakistan’s tourism. With the everincreasing openness of Pakistan， more and more international tourists， especially those from China， visit this place. Pakistan also regards tourism as one of the development priorities for the next stage of the CPEC construction.

Architecture， automobiles and customs with rich cultural heritage and spectacular natural scenery constitute a superb tourist route connecting busy Karachi， delicate Lahore， rising Islamabad， and Gilgit surrounded by snowy mountains. With the construction of the Belt and Road and CPEC， the Chinese gradually discover the unexplored tourist destination of Pakistan.

“We don’t have other industries. Tourism is our only pillar industry， but we lack the funds to build high-standard hotels and can’t provide high-end services. China is our role model. Chinese enterprises are welcome to invest here.” Representatives of the Gilgit Tourism Association hope that Chinese enterprises could invest in restaurants and hotels here to attract more tourists.

At the hotels in Hunza and Gilgit， the reporter found that， the service here still has a long way to go， compared with that of the international tourist destinations. The hotels of Hunza are located at the ground floor. The tap water with sediment is from the running water in the ditch outside. Mustafa， a local resident， regarded it as normal because the tap water of hotels is always like this. Judging from his tone， it seems like he did not see this as a big problem. The hotels of Gilgit are somewhat like the agritainment in China. There are less than 10 rooms in a small courtyard. The environment is quiet and beautiful.

July and August are the peak season for tourism in Gilgit. But there are not many people except for some self-driving tourists. There are no direct flights between Gilgit and China. Gilgit Airport is small and the airplanes can only accommodate a few dozen people. Since the planes have to cross mountains continuously， the flights are often canceled in case of bad weather. In case of star-crossed conditions， you may be detained for several days. “I hope the flights and buses between Kashgar and Gilgit can be opened， so that many tourists in Kashgar can come here too.”Representatives of the Gilgit Tourist Association suggested.

In view of Pakistan’s obvious geographical advantages and a large population， CPEC construction has great development opportunities. But for investors， opportunities always go hand in hand with challenges， so it is necessary to evaluate the situation and risks. For Pakistan， development requires introduction of foreign investment， but more importantly， its own efforts are needed. It needs to improve its own basic conditions， flexibly adjust relevant policies and regulations to meet the needs of economic development and promote sustainable development.