英文摘要

Indian“StringofPearls”:India’sActEastPolicyandItsProspect

Yang Siling

Abstract:The “string of pearls”strategy was originally invented by the Americans to hype China’s so-called military presence and activities in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.India not only uses this false image as a reference to hype China’s encirclement of India,but also promotes Indian“string of pearls”as countermeasures,and established noteworthy interaction with Myanmar,Vietnam,Japan and other countries.“Taking falsehood as true”not only represents misperception among actors due to the lack of understanding, but also reflects why realist theories are so secretive about moral issues in international politics.The reason behind this is the starting point of the implementation of the strategy of“taking falsehood as true”is usually the so-called“national interest”,not the moral standard of right or wrong.In this regard,the game of international politics is almost delusional,and it is also the root cause that the specter of realism still entrenched in contemporary international political interactions.As far as the so-called “string of pearls”in India’s Act East Policy is concerned,it is itself an important part of the strategy of“taking falsehood as true”.India’s Act East Policy has its own limits because India is not able to recognize its own strength and exaggerates the so called“China Threat”and holds wishful speculation about policies towards China made by the U.S.and other western countries.

KeyWords:India,String of Pearls,Act East Policy,Game of Great Powers

TheU.S.Indo-PacificStrategyandRegionalBipolarization

Li Jiasheng

Abstract:The interaction between the growing power of China and American hegemony is the main driving force of transformation of order in the Indo-Pacific region.The “Indo-Pacific Strategy” of the U.S.is another continuous strategy to maintain the hegemony and cope with the rise of China.The purpose of this strategy is to maintain the dominant position of the U.S.with the materialization of the “Indo-Pacific Strategy”and the rise of China,the Indo-Pacific region may become more polarized and the regional order will transform gradually.In recent years,China’s perception of the“Indo-Pacific Strategy”has become increasingly negative, and repeatedly making harsh criticisms.To cope with the“Indo-Pacific Strategy”,China should distinguish the areas issue competing with the U.S.at the global and regional levels,adopt a more active foreign policy in East Asia,and provide leading values,international norms and institutional arrangements for regional countries,so as to creat the foundation for China’s rise in the region.

KeyWords:China’s Rise,Indo-Pacific Strategy,Regional Bipolarization,China-U.S.Relations

StatusMythsandtheStrategicOverdraftofRisingPowers:AnExaminationontheNavalExpansionoftheSecondGermanEmpire

Ding Siqi

Abstract:The causes of strategic overdraft of great powers have been an important topic in studies of international relations.This article focuses on the impact of status pursuit on the strategic overdraft of rising powers.Through deductive reasoning and a case study of the strategic overdraft of German naval expansion under Wilhelm II, the article finds that if rising powers indulge in the pursuit of higher international status,and status myths emerge as a result,then rising powers are likely to fall into a situation of strategic overdraft.The main reason why status myths can lead to strategic overdraft is that status myths can influence the entire process of a rising power’s strategic behavior.Specifically,the phase of the strategic assessment leads to goal drift,the strategy formulation leads to risk seeking,the implementation of strategy leads to resource extraction,and the strategy adjustment leads to the failure of stop-loss.From the perspective of status myths,China,which has maintained a restrained attitude toward status seeking,is not yet at the risk of strategic overdraft.

KeyWords:Rising Powers,Strategic Overdraft,Strategic Behavior,Status Myths

Progress,ProspectandtheEffectoftheSecurityCooperationoftheSupplyChainbetweentheU.S,Japan,IndiaandAustralia

Zhang Li,Luo Yao

Abstract:The complexity of transnational supply chain determines that the problems existing in the security of supply chain are inevitable.However,the cooperation of the security of supply chain between the U.S.,Japan,India and Australia go beyond the normal scope and is guided by“De-Sinicization”with the bold color of“security”.Based on the quadrilateral talks between the U.S.,Japan,India and Australia,the four countries have been constantly and actively promoting cooperation of the security of supply chain in many fields.In the future,the security of supply chain cooperation among the four countries has a certain foundation,but it also faces multiple challenges,such as the difficulties in decoupling from China,the difficulties of coordination among the four countries,inconsistant with economic laws,India’s weak undertaking capacity and high costs of enterprise adjustment.As the most direct target of the agenda of the supply chain security of the four countries,China should take precautions against the unexpected risks,and effectively resolve the difficulties and risks that may be brought by the cooperation of the security of supply chain of the four countries by continuously expanding foreign cooperation.

KeyWords:Quad,Security Cooperation of Supply Chain,Securitization of Supply Chain,Cooperation of Supply Chain

TheProlongedMyanmarCrisisandItsInfluenceonASEAN

Bao Zhipeng

Abstract:Since Tatmadaw (The Military)regained the power of the country in 2021,Myanmar crisis has shown a prolonged trend in the context of domestic political crisis,national reconciliation crisis and humanitarian crisis.From Myanmar’s perspective,the military’s ability to control the situation at home is key to determining its willingness to cooperate with ASEAN.Given the inability to solve the domestic crisis,it is difficult for Tatmadaw to effectively and positively respond to the demands of ASEAN.From the perspective of ASEAN,there are twofold fundamental motivations for ASEAN’s long-term response to the Myanmar crisis.First,in the long term,Myanmar’s internal crisis can’t be resolved,and its impact on the regional order and ASEAN’s overall process will continue to exist.Second,although the Myanmar issue has become less popular,ASEAN still regards it as a challenge to ASEAN’s reputation,unity and centrality,and will not give up efforts to continue to deal with the Myanmar issue.Normatively,the Myanmar issue has once again triggered a debate on the adaptability of the principle of non-interference.Future response of ASEAN to the Myanmar issue will focus on controlling the impact of the Myanmar issue on ASEAN’s in-depth integration process and avoiding its interference with other ASEAN agendas.ASEAN will pay more attention to internal coordination and do its best to maintain the consistency of ASEAN’s position on Myanmar in general.At the same time,ASEAN will continue to insist on ASEAN-led response to Myanmar issues and prevent improper intervention by outside forces.ASEAN will also take the opportunity to dealing with Myanmar issue to further enhance capacity-building of coping with internal crises and explore ways to reform the“ASEAN Way”.

KeyWords:Myanmar Crisis,Principle of Non-Interference,ASEAN Way

TheRiseoftheTalibaninAfghanistanandItsProspects:APerspectiveonTribalPoliticalCulture

Liu Wei

Abstract:The tribes are the basic social foundation for Taliban’s growth and development.As the main body of Afghan tribal society,the Pashtun tribes have formed a unique tribal political culture with the Pashtunwali as the core,forming a unique culture of honor,autonomy,patronage and momentum,which has profoundly influenced the rise and fall of the Afghan state.After 2001,with the support of western countries,Afghanistan established a“western-style”democratic political structure,but it was so incompatible with the state’s indigenous tribal political culture and then the national reconstruction ultimately failed.In contrast,it was by catering to tribal political culture and gaining a steady stream of tribal support that the Taliban reemerged and eventually seized power.In fact,in order to function effectively,a particular political structure needs to be matched with a corresponding political culture,and a particular political culture is the result of the long-term cultivation of a political structure that fits it.Although the Taliban has regained power in Afghanistan and the prospect of national reconstruction is full of uncertainty,tribal political culture has remained a constant“cultural undercurrent”in Afghanistan.The new Taliban regime needs to make full use of the tribal political culture to steadily advance the reconstruction of Afghanistan,which will not only test the political wisdom of the Taliban,but also require the full support of the international community.

KeyWords:Afghan Taliban,Political Culture,Pashtun Tribe,Pashtunwali

TheStudyoftheCharacteristicsandGrowthEffectofIndustrialOpening-UpinIndia

Yang Xianming, Cui Keqi

Abstract:India’s industrial structure, opening-up process and economic growth have always been the focus of India studies.This paper firstly analyses the main characteristics and causes of the opening-up of India’s industries;then this paper uses TVP-VAR model to demonstrate the time-varying impact of India’s industrial opening-up on economic growth from 1987 to 2017,and empirically analyses the relevant factors which restrict the sustainability of the growth effect of India’s industrial opening-up.The results showed that the choice of industrial opening in India has formed the heterogeneity of growth,which means the growth effect of the opening of the tertiary industry is greater than that of the opening-up of the primary and secondary industry,the opening-up of the tertiary industry has a positive growth effect,the growth effect of the opening-up of the secondary industry is negative in 30 years,and the opening-up of the primary industry has little impact on economic growth.At the same time,the empirical results show that in recent years,the effect of positive growth of the opening-up of the tertiary industry is weakening,the effect of negative growth of the opening-up of the secondary industry remains,the growth effect of the opening-up of the primary industry has been optimized,but the impact is still very small,and the trend of economic growth driven by the opening-up of the tertiary industry is declining.The possible constraints are barriers of labor mobility and the investment of government finance.

KeyWords:Characteristics of the Opening-Up of Tertiary Industry,Growth Effect,TVP-VAR Model,Influencing Factors